Doncaster vs Stockport County Prediction

The wise old one would say: "The force is with those who prepare." And prepare, Stockport County have. Four wins in their last five matches, seven goals scored, one conceded — that is a side in rhythm, and rhythm, young one, is a thing you cannot manufacture. Their last outing saw them beat Bromley 1–0 at home, and before that, a 3–1 home win over Barnsley, and before that still, a 2–0 away win at Shrewsbury in the EFL Trophy. The run is real, and it is not a blip.

Doncaster, meanwhile, sit at home with a record of 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses across their last 20 home games. Not a fortress, no. A ground where the wind blows both ways. Their last outing saw them fall 2–1 at Leicester three days before this fixture, and before that, two narrow 1–0 home victories against Burton Albion and Liverpool U21, the latter in the EFL Trophy. Solid, yes, but the quality of opposition matters, and the force of Stockport's recent run is a different creature entirely. Doncaster's home figures sit at 1.25 points per game and 0.9 goals scored per game, while Stockport's away record over 20 games reads 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, with 1.55 points per game and 1.55 goals scored per game. The numbers do not lie, and the numbers say Stockport County are the stronger side on this occasion.

The head-to-head at this ground tells a clear story. In the last two meetings here, Doncaster were beaten 0–1 and 0–2. No goals scored. No points. The reverse venue at Stockport's ground saw a 1–1 draw and a 4–2 win, but the pattern at Doncaster's ground is one-sided. Add to that that Stockport's xG over five recent games sits at 1.71 per game for and 1.16 per game against, while Doncaster's xG over three games with data is 0.62 per game for and 1.08 per game against. The gap is visible, and it is not small.

The counter-argument, if I must give it its due: Doncaster have kept clean sheets in three of their last five matches, and their xG against, while concerning, is not catastrophic. Stockport's 3–1 win over Barnsley showed they can be pierced, and the 0–0 draw at Sheffield Wednesday four weeks ago reminds us that even a side on a run can go quiet. The market prices Stockport at 52.36%, which is a fair reflection of their superiority, but it is not a certainty. Football, as I have said many times, is a game of 90 minutes, and in those 90 minutes, the underdog's heart can beat louder than the favourite's stats. I rate Stockport's chance at roughly 56%, a shade above the market's view, and that edge, however thin, is enough for a wise man to place his coin.

Key Points:

• Stockport County have won their last four matches, scoring 7 and conceding just 1

• At Doncaster's ground, the last two meetings ended 0–1 and 0–2, both Stockport wins

• Stockport's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 1.55 points per game

• Doncaster's home record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games, 1.25 points per game

• Doncaster lost their most recent match, 1–2 at Leicester, three days before this fixture

The force is with Stockport County. I place my wager on the away win at 1.91.