Dordrecht vs MVV Prediction

Right then, gather round the bar for Friday night lights in the Eerste Divisie. Dordrecht are hosting MVV, and if you're looking for a home win banker to kick off the weekend acca, you might just have found it.

Dordrecht have been solid as a rock at their own gaff lately. Sixty percent win rate in their last five home games, banging in two goals a game like clockwork. They've just put three past Helmond Sport and Den Bosch, ground out a tight 1-0 against Emmen, and even nicked a 2-1 win at Jong AZ. The only blot on their copybook was that shock 1-0 defeat to Jong Ajax, but apart from that, they're cooking with gas at home with 17 goals in their last ten outings.

Now, MVV away from home? Blimey, it's been a proper horror show. Four defeats in their last five on the road, shipping three goals a game like it's going out of fashion. We're talking 5-0 drubbings by FC Eindhoven, 4-0 hidings from Cambuur, and 3-0 tonkings from ADO Den Haag. They couldn't keep a clean sheet if their lives depended on it - zero in their last ten matches - and they're only averaging 0.4 goals per game away from home. The only time they looked half-decent was that mad 3-3 draw at De Graafschap, but let's be honest, their defence is about as organised as a sack of cats.

Head-to-head, this fixture usually serves up a goal-fest. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in seven of those nine. Dordrecht won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in August, but before that we saw 3-0s and 3-1s flying about.

The bookies have made Dordrecht heavy favourites at 1.44, and fair play to them - MVV's travel sickness is chronic. You'd need your head checking to back the visitors at 6.50 given they've lost four of their last five away days and conceded 15 goals in the process.

Key Points:

• Dordrecht have won 60% of their last five home matches, scoring 2.00 goals per game on average

• MVV have lost 80% of their last five away games, conceding an average of 3.00 goals per game

• Eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings have produced over 2.5 goals

• MVV have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten matches

• Dordrecht have scored 17 goals in their last ten games (1.70 per game)

The Verdict:

At 1.44, Dordrecht won't pay for your summer holidays on their own, but it's a banker for your accumulator. MVV are leaking goals like a rusty bucket on their travels, and Dordrecht have the firepower at home to take full advantage. Back the home win with confidence.