Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction

Right, so we've got Dundalk hosting Shamrock Rovers on 30 October, and if you've been following the Premier Division, you'll know this one's got a story.

Dundalk have been having a bit of a nightmare. Four losses in their last five, and if you look at their home form recently, it's been grim. They lost 1-2 to Bohemians on 2 October, then 2-3 to Shelbourne on 18 September, and before that, 0-4 to St Patrick's Athletic on 14 September. Three home defeats in a row, and the 0-4 one was a real stinger. Their last five overall has them at 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses — 0.2 points per game. That's not a team in the business.

Now, Shamrock Rovers are the opposite. Four wins in their last five, 2.4 points per game. They smashed Sligo Rovers 4-0 on 23 October, beat Bohemians 2-1 on 12 October, and before that, 3-1 against Drogheda and 3-2 against Waterford. The only blemish was a 0-2 loss at Galway United on 16 October, but since then they've been in the box.

The head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months tells you Dundalk won 1-0 back in May, but that was before the wheels came off. The other two recent meetings — both at Shamrock's end — saw them win 3-2 and draw 1-1. And if you look at the wider picture, Shamrock have won 12 of 29 meetings against Dundalk, with 10 for Dundalk and 7 draws.

The matchup numbers back it up. Over 20 home games, Dundalk average 2 goals a game and concede 1.45. Over 20 away games, Shamrock average 1 goal and concede 1.35. But the last 10 tells the real story: Dundalk are at 0.8 points per game with 2.1 conceded per game, while Shamrock are at 1.5 points per game with 1.3 conceded. That's a clear gap in the current form.

The counter-argument? Dundalk's home record over 20 games is 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses — 1.5 points per game. That's not nothing. And they did win the last meeting at this ground. Plus, Shamrock's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses, and they've failed to score in 9 of those 20. So they're not exactly a force on the road.

Key Points:

• Dundalk have lost 4 of their last 5, including three straight home defeats

• Shamrock Rovers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 12 goals in that span

• The last 12 months of head-to-head at this ground saw Dundalk win 1-0, but the other two recent meetings at Shamrock's end saw a 3-2 win and a 1-1 draw

• Dundalk's last 10 shows 2.1 goals conceded per game; Shamrock's last 10 shows 1.3

• The market prices Shamrock Rovers at 2.1, implying about 48%

My call: I'm going with the Shamrock Rovers away win.