Dundee vs ST Mirren Prediction

Ag man, this is going to be a proper scrap between two teams struggling at the wrong end of the table! Dundee are sitting 11th with only 9 points from 13 games, while ST Mirren aren't much better in 9th with 10 points from 12 games. Both sides need the points badly, but the form book doesn't make for pretty reading.

Dundee's recent form is shocking - just 2 wins in their last 10 games and they're leaking goals like a sieve. They've conceded 21 goals in those 10 matches (2.1 per game), including some proper hammerings like 0-4 against Hearts and 0-3 against Rangers. Their only bright spot was that surprise 2-0 win over Celtic at home, but that looks like a one-off given they've lost 7 of their last 10.

ST Mirren aren't setting the world alight either, but they do look a bit more capable going forward. They've scored 12 in their last 10 (1.2 per game) and interestingly, they actually play better away from home - scoring 1.8 goals per game on their travels compared to just 0.6 at home. They put four past Motherwell in the League Cup recently, showing they can find the net when they want to.

The head-to-head is pretty tight, but ST Mirren got the better of Dundee 1-0 when they visited back in September. Looking at the stats, both teams are terrible defensively - each has only managed 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games. Dundee are conceding over 2 goals per game on average, while ST Mirren aren't far behind at 1.6.

When you look at the goal numbers, this screams goals to me. Dundee's home games average 2.8 goals (1.6 conceded + 1.2 scored), and ST Mirren's away games average 3.6 goals (1.8 scored + 1.8 conceded). Both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games recently, and with both defenses looking shaky, I'm expecting plenty of action in both boxes.

The bookies have Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, which looks pretty decent value when you consider both teams' defensive records and the fact that neither can afford to sit back and defend in a relegation battle. This could be one of those games where both teams go for it and we end up with a proper goal fest!

Key Points:

• Dundee have conceded 21 goals in their last 10 games (2.1 per game)

• ST Mirren score better away from home (1.8 goals per game vs 0.6 at home)

• Both teams have only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches

• Head-to-head: ST Mirren won 1-0 at Dundee in September

• Goal expectancy suggests around 3.2 goals in this match

• Both sides are in the bottom three and need points badly

Summary: With both defenses looking like they've been enjoying too many braais instead of training, and both teams needing points in this relegation scrap, I'm backing goals. Both sides have shown they can score but also that they can't defend for toffee. Over 2.5 goals looks the value bet here.