Estoril vs Arouca Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-half clash between Estoril and Arouca. Both sides are scrapping for points down the wrong end of the table, but there's a world of difference in their recent form.

Estoril come into this on the back of a cracking 4-0 away win at Rio Ave - that's the sort of result that puts a spring in your step, isn't it? Before that, they'd ground out a 1-1 home draw with Nacional. The thing is, their home form has been a bit hit-and-miss lately, only winning 25% of their recent games on their own patch. They do know where the goal is though, averaging 1.6 goals per game over their last 10 matches.

Arouca, bless 'em, are in a right old mess at the back. Zero clean sheets in 10 games! Let that sink in - not one single clean sheet. They've shipped 26 goals in those 10 matches, which is nearly 3 per game. Recent results make grim reading: 0-2 at home to Moreirense, 0-5 hammering at Benfica, and 0-4 at home to Porto. It's defensive chaos.

But here's the funny thing - Arouca actually play better away from home. They've won 40% of their away games recently, compared to absolutely zilch at home. Strange game, football.

Head-to-head, Arouca have historically had the number on Estoril, but at Estoril's ground it's been pretty even - two wins each in four meetings. Five of their nine encounters have seen both teams score, which doesn't surprise me given Arouca's defensive woes.

The stats are screaming at us here: Estoril score 1.6 per game, Arouca concede 2.6 per game. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out what might happen there.

Key Points:

• Estoril smashed Rio Ave 4-0 away in their last game

• Arouca have kept ZERO clean sheets in 10 matches

• Arouca concede 2.6 goals per game on average

• Estoril average 1.6 goals scored per game

• Arouca's away form (40% win rate) is better than home form (0%)

• Both teams have scored in 5 of 9 head-to-head meetings

The way I see it, Estoril's confidence will be sky-high after that Rio Ave result, and they're facing a defence that's about as solid as a paper bag. Arouca might nick one on the break - they usually do - but Estoril should have too much quality at home.