Fiorentina vs Cremonese Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Fiorentina are rock bottom, and I mean proper last place with just one win all season. Nine points from seventeen games – that's the stuff of nightmares. But here's the twist: they're at home, and at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, they've shown they can still throw a punch. Remember that 5-1 demolition of Udinese just a couple of weeks back? That's the kind of result that tells you this lot aren't completely dead and buried.

Cremonese, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in mid-table. They're twelve points better off than their hosts and have been a tough nut to crack on their travels. Their away form reads: 40% wins, and they're conceding a miserly 0.6 goals per game on the road. They went to Bologna – who are flying high in seventh – and won 3-1. They also ground out a 0-0 draw at a defensively solid Lazio. They're organised, they're hard to beat, and they've kept three clean sheets in their last ten.

So, what's the story? Fiorentina's defence is about as solid as a paper bag in a rainstorm. No clean sheets in their last ten matches. They concede 1.5 goals a game on average. But at home, they score 1.8. They're a bit of a 'you score, we'll score' team at the moment. Cremonese, meanwhile, have forgotten how to find the net lately. They've failed to score in their last two outings against Napoli and Lazio. Their goalscoring trend is officially 'declining'.

When these two have met before, Fiorentina have usually had the upper hand – three wins and a draw from four. But the most recent clash was a dour 0-0. That might be a sign of things to come.

The bookies have Fiorentina as favourites at 1.80. That feels a bit short for a team propping up the league, even at home. The draw is 3.40 and the away win a juicy 5.00. The goal line is set at 2.5, with Under at 1.80 and Over at 2.00. Both Teams to Score is an even-money shot at 1.91.

Here's my take, plain and simple. Fiorentina are desperate and can score at home. Cremonese are stubborn and barely concede away. Both teams' last three games have averaged just 1.33 goals each. This has the makings of a tight, nervy affair. I can see a 1-0 either way, or another 0-0 stalemate.

Key Points:

Fiorentina are bottom with just one league win all season.

At home, they score 1.8 goals per game but have kept zero clean sheets in ten.

Cremonese are strong away, winning 40% of their last five on the road and conceding only 0.6 goals per game.

Cremonese have failed to score in their last two matches.

The last head-to-head meeting finished 0-0.

Recent form for both sides points to a low-scoring game.

All the numbers are pointing one way. The value isn't in picking a winner from two inconsistent sides; it's in the goal market. With both teams struggling for goals recently and Cremonese's defence looking tight on their travels, I'm leaning heavily towards a low-scoring game.