Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids Prediction

Alright mate, grab yourself a pint and let's have a proper look at this MLS curtain-raiser. Seattle Sounders hosting Colorado Rapids, and if the numbers are anything to go by, the visitors might be in for a long old evening.

Seattle have turned their patch into a proper fortress, haven't they? Five wins out of six at home, banging in 2.33 goals a game and keeping it tighter than a drum at the back with just one conceded per match. They come into this off the back of a solid 3-1 win against Louisville City in pre-season, and before that they put three past Hammarby. Sure, they took a 3-0 hiding from Metalist Kharkiv, but that looks like a one-off blip in an otherwise dominant run. Even in that mad 3-3 thriller against Minnesota to close out last season, they showed they can mix it with the big boys.

Now, Colorado. Bless 'em, but their away form is shocking - five defeats in their last six on the road, shipping 2.5 goals a game. That's leakier than a sieve, mate. They did manage a 4-1 friendly win over Orlando, but Orlando's defence has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot lately. When it matters in the league, they've been struggling - that 3-0 pasting by LA Galaxy and the 4-2 drubbing at Sporting Kansas City tell you everything you need to know.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Rapids fans too. Seattle have only lost once in nine meetings, winning four and drawing the other four. Even when Colorado nick a point, they're hanging on for dear life.

Looking at the maths - and you know I love the maths - the bookies have Seattle at 1.50, which implies about a 67% chance. But with Seattle winning 83% of their home games recently and Colorado losing 83% of their away days, that price looks like proper value to me. We're talking a decent edge in the punter's favour.

The goal expectancies have Seattle at 2.42 and Colorado at 1.17, so we're looking at a likely 2-1 or 3-1 type of game. Colorado might nick one - they've only kept one clean sheet in their last ten - but Seattle's defence at home has been solid as a rock.

Key Points:

• Seattle have won 83% of their last six home games, averaging 2.33 goals per game

• Colorado have lost 83% of their last six away games, conceding 2.5 goals per game on average

• Seattle have lost just once in nine meetings with Colorado (4 wins, 4 draws)

• Goal expectancies suggest a 3.59 total goals game, with Seattle contributing 2.42 of those

• The 1.50 on a home win offers value against an 83% actual win rate

Summary: Seattle are proper strong at home, Colorado can't buy a win on the road. The 1.50 might look short, but the numbers say it's a value play. Back the Sounders to start their season with three points.