Preview
Right, so we've got Amarante hosting Portimonense on 10 October in the Segunda Liga, and if you've got a spare five minutes, let me walk you through why this one's got a clear lean.
First up, the home record. Amarante have been absolutely solid at home over the last 20 games — 11 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses. That's 2 points per game, scoring 1.35 a pop and conceding just 0.85. Nine clean sheets in 20 home games, and they've only failed to score in 2 of those 20. That's a team that comes home and does the business. Now, those 20 games stretch back to August 2025, so the older ones do dilute things a bit, but the pattern is consistent and the numbers don't wobble.
Now flip it to Portimonense on the road. Their last 20 away games? 6 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses. Half their away games end in defeat. They score 0.9 per game on the road and concede 1.2. Seven of those 20 away games saw them go the whole 90 without finding the net. That's a team that struggles to get results away from home, plain and simple.
And their recent form doesn't help the cause. Portimonense have won just one of their last five — a 1–0 away at Castro Daire in the cup. Before that, they lost 0–2 at home to Tondela, lost 0–1 away to União de Leiria, and lost 0–2 at home to Leixoes. Three losses in four league games, scoring just two goals in five matches. That's not a team in the thick of it.
Amarante, for their part, have won their last game — a 2–0 away at Ponte da Barca in the cup — and their last five is 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. Not perfect, but they've got that home record to lean on, and the numbers say they're the stronger side when the game is at their end.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Portimonense did pick up that 1–0 win at Castro Daire three weeks ago, and they've got a current run of one win. Also, Amarante's last five isn't all sunshine — they lost 1–3 to Leixoes and drew 2–2 at home to União de Leiria. And there's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we can't point to a history of dominance. The market has Portimonense at 35.21% for an away win, which isn't crazy given they've got that one recent win and Amarante's form isn't flawless.
But here's the thing. When you look at the home record — 11 wins in 20 — against the away record — 6 wins in 20 — the gap is massive. Amarante are scoring more, conceding less, keeping more clean sheets, and failing to score far less often at home than Portimonense do away. The numbers don't lie, and they point one way. I'd rate Amarante's chance of winning this at around 52%, which sits well above the 37.74% the market is pricing in. That's value, mate.
Key Points:
- Amarante's home record: 11W 7D 2L in 20 games, 2 ppg, 9 clean sheets, 1.35 goals scored per game
- Portimonense's away record: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 7 games without scoring, 1.2 conceded per game
- Portimonense's last five: 1W 1D 3L, just 2 goals scored in 5 matches
- No head-to-head on record, so venue records and current form do the talking
- Market prices Amarante at 37.74% for a home win; the evidence suggests they're better than that
My verdict: I'm going with the Amarante home win at 2.65. The home record is the story here, and Portimonense's away struggles make this a clear value.
