Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you – this one's got me scratching my head a bit, but the numbers don't lie. Udinese have won both of their recent meetings with Torino, and that includes the one at Torino's ground back on 7 January when they came in and took 2–1. The 2–0 at Udinese's ground on 2 May sealed it – two wins in those two games.
Torino's last five has been a struggle. One win, one draw, three losses. They've scored just four goals and conceded seven, and they haven't kept a single clean sheet. Two of those five games ended with Torino failing to score at all. The xG numbers back it up – they're creating 0.95 per game but their opponents are getting 1.31 per game against them. That's a defence that's leaking, bra.
Udinese, on the other hand, have scored seven goals in their last five – 1.4 per game. Yes, they've also lost three of those five, but they're scoring. Their xG for is 1.34 per game, which is a solid chunk higher than Torino's 0.95. And their away record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, with 1.4 goals scored per game. Torino's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 2 draws, 10 losses, but they're only managing 1.25 per game.
Now, the counter-argument: both teams are in remarkably similar recent form – 1W 1D 3L in the last five. Torino's home record does edge Udinese's away record on points per game (1.3 to 1.2), and the head-to-head record is only two games. Torino did pick up a point at Bologna's ground on 19 September, and they've got that Coppa Italia loss to Monza on 1 September to shake off. It's not a foregone conclusion.
But when you stack the evidence – the H2H dominance, the scoring gap, the xG numbers, Torino's inability to keep clean sheets – the visitors have the edge. The market is pricing Udinese at 29.85% implied, but the football tells me they're closer to 40%. That's value at 3.35.
Key Points:
- Udinese won both recent head-to-head meetings (2–0 and 1–2), including at Torino's ground
- Torino have no clean sheets in their last five and failed to score in two of them
- Udinese score 1.4 per game away over 20 games; Torino manage 1.25 at home
- Both teams are in similar recent form (1W 1D 3L), but the xG and H2H data favour the visitors
- Torino's xG against (1.31 per game) shows a defence that's struggling to hold out
Verdict: Udinese away win at 3.35.