Guimaraes vs Nacional Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Primeira Liga fixture. Guimaraes, sitting 7th with 22 points, welcome Nacional, who are down in 14th with 16 points. On paper, it's a home banker, but football's never that simple, is it?

Guimaraes have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act lately. Their overall form from the last ten isn't bad – five wins, two draws, three losses. But peel back the onion and you see the cracks at home. They've only won one of their last three at their own gaff, and that was a 4-0 thumping of bottom-side AVS. Since then, they've been turned over 1-4 by Sporting (no shame there) and, more worryingly, lost 0-1 to that same AVS side in the cup. They're solid on the road, mind you, but at home they're conceding 1.33 goals a game. The good news for them is they keep clean sheets 60% of the time overall, which is top drawer.

Now, enter Nacional. They've not kept a single clean sheet in their last ten outings. Not one. But here's the rub – they've scored in eight of those ten games. They find the net, averaging 1.60 goals a game, but they leak 'em just as fast, conceding 1.60. Their recent 2-2 draw with AVS and 3-1 win over Tondela show they can hurt weaker defences, and they've scored against the likes of Benfica and Braga too. They're the definition of 'you score, we score'.

And history agrees with me. When these two meet, it's usually a good watch. Looking at the head-to-head, both teams have scored in seven of the last nine clashes, and over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of nine as well. The last time they played, back in May, Guimaraes won 2-1. At home, Guimaraes are unbeaten against Nacional in the data we've got.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Guimaraes at 1.90 to win. Tempting, but their wobbly home form and Nacional's knack for grabbing a goal puts me off a straight home win. The value, in my book, lies in the goals market. Nacional can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives, and Guimaraes should fancy their chances at home. But Guimaraes' home defence has been breached by Sporting, Benfica, and even AVS recently. I fancy both nets to ripple.

Key Points:

Guimaraes are 7th, Nacional are 14th in the Primeira Liga.

Guimaraes have kept clean sheets in 60% of their last 10 games, but concede 1.33 per game at home.

Nacional have no clean sheets in their last 10 matches.

Both teams have scored in 80% of Nacional's last 10 games.

Head-to-head history strongly favours goals: BTTS in 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Recent results: Guimaraes drew 0-0 with Casa Pia, lost 1-4 to Sporting. Nacional drew 2-2 with AVS and beat Tondela 3-1.

Summary: This has the makings of an open game. Guimaraes are the better side and should create chances, but Nacional's attack travels and their defence is charitable. With the odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes sitting at a tasty 1.95, that's where I'm putting my money. It's the clear pattern in the numbers.