Empoli vs Sampdoria Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-of-the-table scrap in Serie B. Empoli welcome Sampdoria in what's basically a 'must-not-lose' game for both sides sitting in the relegation zone.

Empoli have been drawing for fun at home recently - 80% of their last 5 home matches have ended level. They're not exactly setting the world alight though, are they? Two wins in ten games tells its own story. But here's the thing that catches my eye - they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Not one! Their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot, shipping nearly two goals per game on average.

Sampdoria, bless 'em, are having an even worse time of it. Rock bottom of the form table with just one win in ten, and their away form is absolutely shocking. Zero wins on the road this season, scoring less than a goal per game away from home. They did manage a 4-1 win over Pescara recently, but that looks about as out of character as a vegetarian at a butcher's convention.

The head-to-head doesn't make pretty reading for Empoli either - they've only won twice in nine meetings against Sampdoria. At home, it's even worse with just one win from five attempts.

But here's where it gets interesting for us punters. Empoli have seen both teams score in 90% of their matches this season. NINETY PERCENT! That's not a trend, that's a guarantee. Sampdoria aren't far behind at 70%. Both teams have defensive issues, both teams are desperate for points, and both teams tend to concede.

The goal expectancy suggests around 2.7 goals in this one, and given Empoli's home record of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game at home, plus Sampdoria's away record of 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, we could be in for a bit of a barnstormer.

Both teams to score at 2.00 looks like the smart money here. It's not the most exciting bet in the world, but sometimes the best bets are the boring ones that actually come in.