Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Prediction

The Force is strong with Ebbsfleet United, and it flows through their home ground like a river that knows no dam. Four wins in a row, fourteen goals scored, one conceded — that is not a coincidence, young one. That is a pattern written in the numbers, and the numbers do not lie.

At their own ground, Ebbsfleet United have won 10 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.2 per game and conceding just 1. Nine clean sheets in those 20. They have failed to score in only 2 of 20. The recent form is even more telling: 6–1 against Weston-super-Mare on 17 October, 5–0 against AFC Totton on 13 October, 2–0 at Hampton & Richmond on 10 October, 1–0 against Folkestone Invicta on 6 October. Four wins, fourteen goals, one conceded. The only blemish was a 1–2 FA Cup defeat to Sholing on 3 October, but that was before the run began.

Now turn your eyes to Horsham. On the road, their record over 20 away games tells a different story: 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses. They score 0.9 per game away and concede 1.45. Nine of those 20 away games ended with them failing to score. Their recent away form is mixed — a 2–1 win at Slough Town on 17 October, a 1–2 loss to Plymouth Parkway on 3 October, a 0–0 draw at Chelmsford City on 26 September, and a 3–0 FA Cup win at Walton & Hersham on 19 September. They have won only their last game, and the road does not treat them kindly.

The head-to-head is small — just two meetings within the last 12 months. At Ebbsfleet's ground, Horsham won 2–1 on 25 November 2025. At Horsham's ground, they drew 1–1 on 24 February 2026. Two games, one win for Horsham and a draw. It is a thin record, and the difference in recent results between these two sides is stark. Those earlier meetings do not carry the weight of what these teams are doing in the present.

The counter-argument, if you must have one: Horsham did score in both of those head-to-head meetings, and their away record does include 5 wins. They are not without the ability to find the net. And the 1–2 Sholing defeat, however brief, reminds us that even a team on a roll can stumble. The market prices the draw at 4.1, implying a 24.39% chance, and that is not nothing. A draw or an upset is possible, as all things are in the Force.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Ebbsfleet United at home, in this form, against a Horsham side that concedes 1.45 per game away and fails to score in 9 of 20 road matches — the path is clear. I rate Ebbsfleet's chance of winning above the market's 66.67%, closer to 73%, and the price of 1.5 reflects that confidence.

Key Points:

• Ebbsfleet United have won their last 4 games, scoring 14 and conceding just 1

• Home record: 10W 5D 5L over 20 games, 2.2 goals scored per game, 9 clean sheets

• Horsham away: 5W 5D 10L over 20 games, 0.9 goals scored per game, 9/20 failed to score

• Head-to-head is limited (2 meetings) with one win for Horsham and a draw

• Market prices Ebbsfleet win at 1.5 (66.67% implied)

The verdict: the home win is the pick.