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Right, folks, let's have a look at this one. Ebbsfleet United host Weston-super-Mare on 17 October at 14:00 in the National League South, and I've got to be honest — this one's a tough call for the underdog corner.
Ebbsfleet United are flying at the moment. They've won their last three games, scoring eight goals and conceding none. That 5-0 demolition of AFC Totton on 13 October and the 2-0 away win at Hampton & Richmond on 10 October show a side clicking on all cylinders. At home over 20 games, they've picked up 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.95 goals per game while keeping 10 clean sheets. Their latest 10 across all venues reads 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 18 goals scored and just 6 conceded. That's a team in genuine form, and the numbers don't lie.
Now, here's where I start to get a little hopeful for the visitors. The head-to-head tells a story that Ebbsfleet fans might not want to hear. In the two meetings within the last 12 months, Weston-super-Mare won both — a 3-1 away win at Ebbsfleet's ground on 21 March and a 1-0 home win on 18 November. That's 2 wins from 2, and while it's just two games, it's the only direct evidence we have between these two sides. It's dated, sure — 7 and 11 months ago — but it does show that Weston-super-Mare have found a way to beat this particular team.
But let's be real. The form gap since those meetings is significant. Weston-super-Mare's last five games read 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses — 1.15 points per game, 1.05 goals scored per game. They're a tough team to beat on the road, sure, with 13 of those 20 away games ending without a defeat. But the 7 losses mean they're not immune to being beaten, and the 8 draws tell you they grind out results rather than dominate. Their latest 10 across all venues is 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 14 goals scored and 12 conceded.
The counter-argument for the underdog is that head-to-head edge and the draw-heavy away record. But Ebbsfleet's home record is equally strong at 15 of 20 not lost, and their current form — three straight wins with a perfect defensive record — is something the visitors simply haven't matched in this window. The H2H evidence is just two games, and both are well over half a year old. I'd need to see more evidence before I could say the little guy has a genuine edge here.
Key Points:
- Ebbsfleet United have won their last 3 games, scoring 8 and conceding 0
- Weston-super-Mare won both of the last 2 head-to-head meetings (3-1 away, 1-0 home), but those games are 7 and 11 months old
- Ebbsfleet's home record: 10W 5D 5L in 20 games, 1.95 goals per game, 10 clean sheets
- Weston-super-Mare's away record: 5W 8D 7L in 20 games, 1.05 goals per game
- Weston-super-Mare's last 5: 1W 3D 1L, 5 scored, 5 conceded
No Bet. The head-to-head gives Weston-super-Mare a glimmer of hope, but the current form gap is too wide and the evidence too limited to back the underdog at 4.05. I'd rather sit this one out and wait for a better little puppy to chase. 🐾
