Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Burnley hosting Charlton on 13 October in the Championship, and I'm telling you, this one's got the smell of a proper braai on it. The kind where the meat is properly done and you don't need to fiddle with vegetables. Burnley are the ones bringing the coals to this one.
Burnley kicked off their last outing with a 4–0 demolition of Watford at Watford's ground on 10 October, and that's the kind of performance that gets your blood pumping. They've scored 8 and conceded 7 across their last five matches, and that 4–0 win is the current run - one game, four goals, zero conceded. Charlton, on the other hand, have managed 0 wins in their last five. They've drawn three and lost two, scoring just 2 goals in that stretch. A 0–4 loss at Stoke City on 5 September and a 1–3 defeat at Cardiff on 19 September don't exactly fill you with confidence when you're packing your bags for an away trip.
Now, the head-to-head here is all historical - the last time these two met was back in 2016, and before that it was 2015, 2014, 2013. Burnley won all five of those meetings, and at Burnley's ground specifically, they won both of the two meetings listed (4–0 and 3–0). I'm not going to pretend that's current form - it's a decade or more old - but it does paint a picture of how this fixture has played out historically.
The matchup tables tell the real story for this specific ground. Over 20 home games, Burnley have 1 win, 11 draws and 8 losses, averaging 0.7 points per game. Charlton over 20 away games have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game. On the surface, Charlton's away record looks the better one. But look at the last five: Charlton have scored 0.4 goals per game and conceded 1.6. Burnley's xG against sits at 1.29 per game over their last five with xG data, while Charlton's xG for is 0.9 per game over their last six. That tells you Burnley's defence at home is holding up better than Charlton's attack is producing on the road.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Burnley's home record is genuinely poor. One win in 20 home games is a weak record, and 11 draws means they've been stuck in a rut of not finishing games off. Charlton's away record of 7 wins in 20 is respectable, and they've kept 5 clean sheets in that stretch. If Burnley's home record is the true guide, this could be another 1–1 or 0–0.
But here's the thing - Charlton's last five games tell a different story. Two 0–0 draws at home, a 0–4 loss, a 1–3 loss, and a 1–1 draw. They've failed to score in three of those five. Burnley, despite the mixed home record, just came back from a 4–0 win and their xG numbers suggest they're creating chances at a rate that Charlton's defence can't handle.
Key Points:
- Burnley won 4–0 away at Watford on 10 October and are on a one-game winning run
- Charlton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches, scoring just 2 goals in that stretch
- Charlton's xG for (0.9 per game) is below the 1.29 per game that Burnley's defence faces, suggesting the visitors' attack is less productive
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (last meeting 2016), so current form and venue records carry the weight
- Charlton have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
My pick: Burnley home win at 1.69.