Tranmere vs Barrow Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this League Two Boxing Day hangover special. Tranmere welcome Barrow to Prenton Park, and if the last meeting is anything to go by, the home fans will be licking their lips. Just three weeks ago, Tranmere went to Barrow's place and absolutely tonked them 3-0. That's the kind of result that sticks in the memory, and you'd fancy it's given the Rovers a real psychological edge.

Tranmere's form is a bit of a mixed bag, but they're definitely the side with more wind in their sails. They're sitting 14th, eight points better off than Barrow in 19th. They've won five of their last ten, including a tidy 1-0 win over a decent Fleetwood side just the other day. The problem? They can be a bit leaky at the back, especially at home. They're conceding an average of two goals a game on their own patch. They've shipped four to Crewe and three to Fleetwood (in the Trophy) recently. But they also know where the net is, scoring three against Cheltenham and two against MK Dons. Their stats show they're having more shots and more of the ball at home, and they've been finishing their chances better than expected lately.

Now, Barrow. Let's be honest, they're in a bit of a rut. One win in their last ten, and that was against non-league opposition in the cup. In the league, it's three losses and three draws from their last six. The strange thing is, they're actually more dangerous on the road, scoring nearly 1.7 goals per away game. They've drawn at Gillingham and Newport County, and even nicked a 2-2 at Wigan in the FA Cup. They don't win often away (just 17% of the time), but they're hard to beat, drawing half their away games. Their defence, however, is a concern, letting in close to two goals a game on average.

So, what does all this add up to? For me, it screams goals at both ends. Both teams have seen Both Teams to Score land in 70% of their last ten matches. Tranmere's home games are averaging 3.5 total goals, Barrow's away games 3.34. The head-to-head history is fairly even, but that recent 3-0 is a bit of an outlier; before that, games have been tighter.

The bookies have the home win at 2.10, which is tempting given the form and table gap. But with Tranmere's shaky home defence and Barrow's ability to score on their travels, I can't see a clean sheet for the hosts. The value, in my book, lies with the Both Teams to Score market. At odds of 1.92, the maths looks good to me.

Key Points:

Tranmere won the reverse fixture 3-0 just 20 days ago.

Tranmere have won 50% of their last 10 games but concede 2 goals per game at home.

Barrow are winless in 6 league games but score 1.67 goals per away game.

Both Teams to Score has landed in 70% of each team's last 10 matches.

• The head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with Tranmere having a slight historical edge.

Summary: This has the makings of an open game. Tranmere will be confident and should create chances, but their defence invites pressure. Barrow, with nothing to lose, will likely get forward and have shown they can score away from home. I'm backing both nets to ripple.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - YES