Burton Albion vs Wigan Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One mid-table tussle. Burton Albion welcome Wigan to the Pirelli Stadium on Monday night, and if you're after a quiet, boring nil-nil, you might want to look elsewhere. This one's got a bit of spice to it.

Burton are buzzing after that absolute demolition job on Boxing Day, putting five past Northampton in a 5-1 rout. That's the kind of result that gets the fans singing and the confidence flowing. They've been a bit up and down lately – a solid draw away at Stevenage, a goalless draw with Wycombe, but also a proper hiding at home to Leyton Orient (0-4). The trend says they're improving, especially in front of goal, averaging over two goals a game in their last three. At home, they score a decent 1.40 per game, but they also let in a worrying 1.60. They're not shy of a goal at either end.

Wigan, on the other hand, are in a bit of a sticky patch. They've lost their last two, going down 2-1 at Bradford and 0-2 at home to Blackpool. Before that, they were the kings of the draw, sharing the points in six of their last ten. They're tough to beat on their travels, drawing 60% of their last five away games, but they only win 20% of them. They did beat Burton 1-0 just a few weeks back, so they'll have that in the locker. Their problem? They're not scoring many – just 1.00 per game on average – but they're also not shipping loads, conceding 1.10.

When these two get together, it's rarely a dull affair. Looking at the head-to-head, both teams have scored in six of the last nine meetings. The last game was a tight 1-0 to Wigan, but the patterns suggest goals at both ends. Wigan's recent games see both teams score a whopping 70% of the time, and Burton's sit at 50%. Put it together, and the maths starts pointing one way.

The bookies have Wigan as slight favourites at 2.40, which feels a bit generous given their current form. Burton at 3.05 might tempt a few after that five-star performance, but their home defence is a concern. For me, the value isn't in picking a winner in what could be a tight, nervy affair. The value is in the goals market.

Key Points:

Burton are flying high after a 5-1 win and are in an improving goalscoring trend.

Wigan are struggling for wins but are hard to beat away, drawing 60% of their last five on the road.

Head-to-head history strongly favours both teams scoring (6 out of 9 matches).

Wigan's recent matches see both teams score 70% of the time.

• Burton's home games average 3.00 total goals (1.40 for, 1.60 against).

All the signs point to both nets getting a ripple. Wigan will be desperate to stop the rot and have shown they can score on the road, while Burton's attack is clearly in the mood. It might not be another five-goal thriller, but I fancy both teams to get on the scoresheet.