Preview
Right, so Rotherham are at home on 20 October to face Newport County, and if you've been following Rotherham's form, you'll know this is a bit of a nightmare. They've lost their last four games — one goal scored, eleven conceded — and that's not the sort of run that makes you feel like you're sitting pretty at your own ground. The last home game was a 1-4 loss to Gillingham on 10 October, and before that a 0-4 thrashing by Bradford in the EFL Trophy on 6 October. The only bit of good news in the last three weeks was a 1-1 draw with Crewe on 26 September, but that was before the slide really got going.
Newport County, on the other hand, have not lost in their last five. Two wins — 1-0 over Colchester on 10 October and 2-1 against Grimsby on 26 September — and three draws, including a 0-0 at Gillingham on 3 October. In those five games they've scored six and conceded four. That's a world of difference from Rotherham's 1-for-11.
Now, let's look at the venue records. Over the last 20 home games, Rotherham have won just 3, drawn 9 and lost 8, and they've conceded 1.75 per game. Newport County, over their last 20 away games, have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7, scoring 1.45 per game and conceding 1.15. In the last 10 games across all venues, Rotherham have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5, conceding 1.9 per game, while Newport have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2, conceding just 0.8. The numbers don't lie.
There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're going purely on current form and venue records. And the form tells a pretty one-sided story. The market prices Newport's win at 28.82%, but with Rotherham's confidence in freefall and Newport's defence holding up at 0.8 conceded per game in their last ten, I'd rate the away side's chance of taking all three points meaningfully higher than that.
The main counter-argument is that Rotherham draw a lot at home — 9 of their last 20 — and that could keep the scoreline tight. Newport's away record, while better, isn't dominant either. And Rotherham's xG for in their last two games with data was 1.19 per game, suggesting they're creating chances even if the results haven't come. But when you've lost four in a row and scored one goal, the confidence is gone, and that shows on the pitch.
Key Points:
- Rotherham have lost their last 4 games, scoring 1 and conceding 11
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 (2W 3D)
- Rotherham's home record: 3W 9D 8L in 20 games, 1.75 conceded per game
- Newport's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.15 conceded per game
- No head-to-head meetings on record
My pick: Newport County away win at 3.47.
