Roda vs VVV Venlo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eerste Divisie clash. On paper, Roda sit 6th and VVV Venlo are down in 11th, but the league table can be a right liar sometimes, and the recent form tells a very different story.

Roda might be higher up, but they've been having a proper nightmare at home lately. No wins in their last four on their own patch, including a 1-2 loss to FC OSS just the other day. They're conceding an average of two goals a game at home, and when you look at their last ten matches overall, both teams have scored in a whopping nine of them. That's 90%! They're scoring plenty themselves – 1.7 a game on average – but they just can't keep the back door shut.

VVV Venlo, on the other hand, are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act. Their home form is rubbish, but get them on the road and they transform. They've won three of their last five away trips, including victories at Den Bosch and Waalwijk. They're tighter at the back away from home too, conceding just 1.2 per game. The head-to-head history is a funny one – it's dead even with two wins each and five draws from nine games. More importantly for us, both teams scored in eight of those nine meetings. VVV even won the last one 3-1 back in August.

So, what's the script for Monday night? Roda will probably have more of the ball and take more shots – the stats say they usually do. But with a defence that's been about as solid as a wet paper bag recently, you'd fancy VVV to find the net. And given VVV's own defence isn't exactly the Great Wall of China, Roda should get their customary goal too.

Key Points:

Roda have seen Both Teams Score in 9 of their last 10 matches.

VVV Venlo have won 60% of their last 5 away games.

Roda are winless in their last 4 home matches (D1 L3).

Head-to-head: Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

• Roda concede 2.0 goals per game at home; VVV score 1.2 per game away.

The Simple Verdict:

All the signs point to goals at both ends. Roda's games are almost a guarantee for BTTS, and VVV have the away-day knack to get on the scoresheet. The odds of 1.53 for Both Teams to Score - Yes look like proper value to me.