Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Eibar at home against Mallorca on 17 October, and if you've got a minute to look at the numbers, this one's got a story that's hard to ignore.
Eibar's home record over the last 20 games is 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses. That's 2.15 points per game, 1.95 goals scored per game, and they've kept 9 clean sheets in that stretch. They've failed to score in just 2 of those 20 home games. Now look at Mallorca's away record over the same 20-game stretch: 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses. That's 0.7 points per game, 0.65 goals scored, and they've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away games. They've conceded 1.6 per game on the road. So you've got a team that's won 14 of 20 at home facing a team that's won 3 of 20 away. That's a pretty big ask for the visitors.
Eibar's last five games have been 4 wins and 1 loss, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. They've gone over 2.5 goals in all five of those. The only blemish is that 1–3 loss at Oviedo on 12 October, which is the only game in that stretch where they didn't win. Mallorca, for their part, have won their last game — a 3–1 home win over Las Palmas on 11 October — but their away form is the real story here. In their last five, they've scored just 6 goals and failed to score in two of those games. Four of their last five have been under 2.5 goals.
Now, the head-to-head here is dated. All three meetings between these two sides go back to 2019 and 2022, and in those three, Mallorca won every time — twice at Eibar's ground (1–2, 1–2) and once at their own. But that's four to seven years ago, so I'd treat it as a footnote rather than a trend. The current form and venue records are what matter, and those point firmly to Eibar.
The counter-argument is this: Eibar did lose their last game, and Mallorca have been decent in their last five — 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. They've kept 3 clean sheets in that stretch and conceded just 2 goals. Their away record does show a tendency for low-scoring results — 10 of 20 away games ended without them scoring, and 4 of their last five have been under 2.5 goals. And the fact that Eibar's last game was a loss does raise a question about whether their recent form has hit a bump.
But here's the thing: Eibar's home record is the most telling number in this fixture. 14 wins in 20 at home, scoring nearly 2 a game, and Mallorca's away record is the opposite end of the scale. The market has Eibar at 2.55 for a win, which implies about 39% chance. I'd put Eibar's chance of winning this at home closer to 55%, which is a comfortable margin over what the bookies are pricing in.
Key Points:
- Eibar have won 14 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.95 per game
- Mallorca have won just 3 of their last 20 away games and failed to score in 10 of them
- Eibar's last five: 4 wins, 1 loss, 13 goals scored, all over 2.5
- The head-to-head is historical (2019–2022) and doesn't reflect current form
- Mallorca's last five include 4 games under 2.5 goals and 2 where they failed to score
My tip: Eibar home win at 2.55.