Preview
Value VinnyEibar arrive at this fixture in formidable home form, and the numbers tell a story that is hard to argue with. Across their last 20 home games in the Segunda División, Eibar have won 14, drawn 1 and lost 5, averaging 2.15 points per game and scoring 1.95 goals per match while conceding just 0.95. That is a record that speaks for itself.
Their recent form reinforces the picture. In their last five matches, Eibar have won four and lost one, scoring 13 goals at a rate of 2.6 per game. The only blemish was a 1–3 defeat at Oviedo on 12 October, but before that they had won 3–1 at Albacete, 3–2 against Las Palmas at home, 2–1 at Eldense and 4–0 at Celta de Vigo II. Every one of those five games produced more than two goals.
Mallorca, by contrast, travel to Eibar's ground with a worrying away record. Over their last 20 away games, they have won just 3, drawn 5 and lost 12, averaging 0.7 points per game. They score 0.65 goals per away match and concede 1.6. In their last five matches, Mallorca have won three, drawn one and lost one, but their scoring output has been modest at 1.2 goals per game, and they have failed to score in two of those five.
The head-to-head between these two sides is entirely historical — all three recorded meetings date back to 2019, 2020 and 2022, with Mallorca winning each time. With no meetings within the last 12 months, that record offers no real insight into how this fixture will play out, and the current form and venue records carry far more weight.
The strongest counter-argument is that Eibar's last game was a loss, and that Mallorca have won their most recent match 3–1 at home against Las Palmas. However, a single defeat does not erase a 14-win home record, and Mallorca's away record of 3 wins in 20 games is the defining factor here. The market prices Eibar at 39.22% and Mallorca at 34.84%, but the gap between Eibar's home output and Mallorca's away output is far wider than those two prices suggest.
Key Points:
- Eibar have won 14 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.95 per game and conceding 0.95
- Mallorca have won only 3 of their last 20 away games, scoring 0.65 per game and conceding 1.6
- Eibar's last five matches: 4 wins, 1 loss, 2.6 goals scored per game
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (2019–2022) and offers no current-form insight
- The market's 39.22% for Eibar underprices the home side given the venue records
Verdict: Eibar home win at 2.55.