Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction

Alright, fancy a flutter on the Bundesliga this weekend? Eintracht Frankfurt are hosting the league's whipping boys, 1. FC Heidenheim, and on paper this looks like a right old mismatch. The hosts sit pretty in 7th with 35 points, while Heidenheim are rooted to the bottom with a measly 14 points from 25 games. It's the classic tale of mid-table security versus desperate relegation fodder.

Now, Frankfurt haven't exactly been setting the world alight lately – just two wins from their last ten tells you they've been a bit hit and miss. But have a butcher's at those recent results: they put a couple of decent sides to the sword with a 2-0 win over Freiburg and a thumping 3-0 against Gladbach. Sure, they got turned over by Bayern (3-2) and Leverkusen (3-1), but those are top-six sides. Against the dross, they've generally done the business at home.

Meanwhile, Heidenheim are in absolute tatters. Zero wins in their last ten – that's ten games without smelling victory, mate. They've picked up just three points from nine in that run, with draws against Stuttgart (a mad 3-3 thriller) and Wolfsburg. But let's be honest, when you're shipping 2.3 goals per game and haven't kept a clean sheet in any of those ten matches, you're in trouble. Away from home it's even worse – 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. They're about as threatening as a blunt butter knife.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the away fans too. Frankfurt have never lost to Heidenheim in six meetings – four wins and two draws. They've stuck 12 goals past them while conceding just two. Even when these two drew 1-1 back in November, Frankfurt were the better side.

So what's the play? The bookies have Frankfurt at 1.50 to win, which is short but fair. When you've got a side 21 points adrift playing a team that's beaten them four times out of four, you don't get rich odds. But there's value here – I'd make Frankfurt closer to 70% to win this, giving us a tidy edge on the 66% implied probability. It's not going to buy you a new car on its own, but as an accumulator anchor or a banker single, it's solid as a rock.

Key Points:

• Eintracht Frankfurt are 7th (35 pts) vs Heidenheim 18th (14 pts) – a 21-point gap

• Heidenheim: 0 wins in last 10 games (3 draws, 7 losses), conceding 2.3 goals per game

• Frankfurt: Unbeaten in last 6 vs Heidenheim (4 wins, 2 draws), scoring 12 and conceding just 2

• Heidenheim have 0 clean sheets in their last 10 matches

• Frankfurt beat Freiburg 2-0 last time out, showing signs of life at home

The Verdict: I'm backing the Home Win at 1.50. Heidenheim are cannon fodder right now, and Frankfurt should have enough to see them off comfortably on their own patch.