Preview
Right, so we've got Elche at home against Valencia on 1 November, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear lean.
Elche have been absolutely flying. Three wins and two draws in their last five, no defeats, and they've won their last two on the bounce — 3–1 at Pinatar and 3–0 at Rayo Vallecano. That's six goals scored and just one conceded in those two. Over the last five games they've averaged 1.8 a game on the attack and conceded a mere 0.4. That's a team that's scoring and keeping it tight, and they're doing it at home where they've picked up 7 wins from 20 games. The head-to-head at this ground in April was a 1–0 Elche win, so the visitors know what's in store.
Now, Valencia are not in the same boat. They've lost their last game — 1–2 at home to Villarreal — and over their last five they've managed just one win, two draws and two losses. Their scoring has dropped to 0.7 a game over the last ten, and they've conceded 1.7 per game. They're not looking like the side that beat Alaves 1–0 back in September. The xG numbers back it up too: Valencia have generated 8.16 xG over seven recent games but only found the net four times. They're creating chances but not finishing them, and that's a problem when you're travelling to a team that's been keeping clean sheets.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play, is that Valencia's away record over 20 games is actually a touch better than Elche's home record — 9 wins to 7, and 1.5 points per game to 1.45. And Elche's only home game in their last five was a 0–0 draw against Celta Vigo three weeks ago. So there's a question mark over whether this hot run translates to home. Plus, the older head-to-head meetings at this ground — going back three or four years — were Valencia wins, so the historical record at this venue isn't one-sided in Elche's favour. But those are dated results, and the recent meeting was an Elche win.
Key Points:
- Elche are unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D), scoring 1.8 per game and conceding just 0.4
- Valencia have lost their last game and scored only 0.7 per game over their last ten
- The recent head-to-head at Elche's ground was a 1–0 Elche win in April
- Valencia's away record (9W 3D 8L in 20) is marginally better than Elche's home record (7W 8D 5L in 20)
- Elche's only home game in their last five was a 0–0 draw, which keeps a small doubt in the mix
My call: Elche home win at 2.48. The form gap is real, the venue edge is there, and the price is well above what the market is pricing it at. I'd put Elche's chance at around 52%, which sits comfortably above the 40.32% the bookies are implying. That's value, and I'm happy to take it.
