Emmen vs Almere City FC Prediction

Eish, what a cracker of a fixture this one is. Emmen hosting Almere City FC in the Eerste Divisie on 17 October, and I'm telling you, the form books are pointing one way and the home record is pointing the other. Let's sort this out.

Almere City FC are the ones in the bag. Four wins from their last five, and they've won their last two on the bounce — 3–0 at home to FC Eindhoven on 9 October and 1–0 to FC Volendam on 3 October. In their last 10 games across all grounds they've picked up 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 2.2 per game while conceding just 0.7. That defensive record is the stuff of legends, my friend. Five clean sheets in 10 games. Their xG against sits at 1.32 per game over the last five matches with data, and they've only conceded 3 goals in those five. The away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses, but the recent away results — a 4–0 demolition of MVV on 11 September and a 2–3 loss at Dordrecht on 25 September — show they can punch above their weight on the road.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give Emmen their due. Their home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 1.45. That's a solid home base. They beat FC OSS 1–0 at home on 26 September and won 3–0 away at Dordrecht on 9 October. The head-to-head at this ground is interesting: the most recent meeting was a 4–0 Emmen win in a friendly on 1 August, but before that, Almere won both older meetings at Emmen's ground (1–4 and 1–2, both historical). So the head-to-head is a bit of a mixed bag, and that friendly doesn't carry the same weight as a competitive fixture.

The market has Emmen at 2.25 for the home win, Almere at 3.02 for the away win, and the draw at 3.9. My read is that Almere's recent form — four wins from five, two straight wins, that 0.7 goals conceded per game — gives them the edge here. I'd rate the Almere City FC win at around 37%, which sits above the 33.11% the bookies are implying. Emmen's home record is respectable, but their last five has been 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, and they've picked up two red cards in that span. Almere's defence has been the story of their last month, and that's hard to ignore.

Key Points:

• Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 5, including a 3–0 and a 1–0, and are on a 2-game winning run

• Emmen's last 5 is 2W 1D 2L, with two red cards observed in that span

• Almere's away record over 20 games: 8W 3D 9L; Emmen's home record: 10W 4D 6L

• Recent head-to-head at Emmen's ground: 4–0 Emmen (friendly, 1 August); older meetings at this venue were Almere wins

• Almere have conceded just 3 goals in their last 5 games; Emmen have conceded 6

So here's my call: Almere City FC away win at 3.02. The form is there, the defence is there, and Emmen's recent home form hasn't been the most convincing. Grab your beer, boet, this one's going to Almere.