Preview
Emmen arrive at this fixture riding a three-game winning run, scoring seven goals and conceding just one across those matches. Their last five games tell a story of a side in genuine command: four wins and a draw, with nine goals scored and only two conceded. At home, the numbers back that up. Across 20 home games from November 2025 through October 2026, Emmen have won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game and 1.8 goals per game while conceding 1.4. Six of those 20 home games ended in clean sheets, and they failed to score in only four.
Den Bosch, by contrast, travel to this fixture with a far less comfortable away record. Over 20 away games spanning 11 months, they have won just 4, drawn 4 and lost 12, averaging 0.8 points per game. They score 1.3 per game on the road and concede 1.95, with only two clean sheets in 20. Their last five matches all venues produced two wins, two draws and a loss, and their most recent outing was a 2–2 draw at home against MVV with a red card in the 80th minute. The away record is the real concern here — 12 losses in 20 is a pattern that does not flatter a visiting side.
The head-to-head is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 draw at Den Bosch's ground in January 2026. Before that, the fixture stretches back over nine years, with Emmen winning 8 of 13 meetings overall. At Emmen's ground specifically, the older record shows 3 meetings with Emmen winning 2 and losing 1. That is dated, and I will not treat it as a trend. What matters is the current form and the venue records, and those point firmly in Emmen's direction.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Den Bosch have won two of their last five, and the only recent head-to-head was a draw. Emmen's last five games saw only two of them go over 2.5 goals, suggesting they are not always the high-scoring side the home record implies. Den Bosch's away record spans 11 months, meaning some of those 12 losses are older and may not reflect their current state. They also scored 11 goals in their last five matches with xG data, showing they can find the net.
Key Points:
- Emmen won their last 3 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 1, and are unbeaten in their last 5
- Emmen's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 goals scored per game
- Den Bosch's away record: 4W 4D 12L in 20 games, 1.95 goals conceded per game
- Only one recent head-to-head meeting (1–1 draw, January 2026); the rest is historical
- Den Bosch's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, with a red card in their most recent match
The market prices Emmen at 1.83, implying a 54.64% chance. My reading of the form, the home record and the away record puts Emmen's probability closer to 60%. That is a genuine edge, and at 1.83 the value is there. I'm backing the Emmen home win.
