Empoli vs Juve Stabia Prediction

Empoli are in a genuine mess, and the numbers don't lie. Five matches, zero wins, one draw, four losses. Five goals scored, eleven conceded. The last two games in particular have been ugly: a 0–2 home defeat to Vicenza Virtus on 23 October and a 1–2 loss at Cesena on 27 October, both of which saw Empoli receive a red card. Stretch that out to ten games and the picture is even bleaker: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses at 0.8 points per game, scoring 0.9 per match while leaking 1.6. Their xG against over the last six matches with data sits at 1.84 per game, which tells you the defensive problems are not a one-off blip.

Juve Stabia, by contrast, have been quietly solid. Their last five games have produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at 1.6 points per game, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. The 3–0 home win over Sudtirol on 18 October and the 1–0 away victory at Cremonese on 24 October show a side that can score and keep things tight. Over ten games, they sit at 3W 4D 3L, 1.3 points per game, scoring 1.2 per match and conceding 1.2. Their xG against is just 1.16 per game, and they have kept two clean sheets in their last five.

The head-to-head at this venue is telling. In the only meeting within the last 12 months at Empoli's ground, on 11 February 2026, Juve Stabia won 2–1. The reverse fixture at Juve Stabia's ground on 13 December 2025 ended 2–0 to the hosts. In both recent meetings, Juve Stabia have come away with the points, and the older meetings from 2019 and 2020 are historical record only — they don't shift the current picture.

The matchup tables show both sides with identical 20-game home/away records — 6W 8D 6L, 1.3 points per game — but the last ten games tell a very different story. Empoli at 0.8 ppg, Juve Stabia at 1.3. Empoli's home scoring rate of 1.25 per game over 20 fixtures is a respectable long-term foundation, and the fact that they have kept 6 clean sheets and failed to score in only 4 of those 20 home games suggests they are capable of controlling games at home. But that record spans 12 months, and the last two home games — 0–2 to Vicenza and 2–4 to Palermo — are the ones that actually matter. The bookmaker has Empoli at 41.32% for the win, but the form, the xG gap and the head-to-head all point the other way. I rate Juve Stabia's chance of winning here at around 42%, which sits comfortably above the 33.33% the market is pricing in. That is the kind of gap you want to find.

Key Points:

• Empoli: 0W 1D 4L in last 5, 2W 2D 6L in last 10, 0.8 ppg, 1.6 goals conceded per game

• Juve Stabia: 2W 2D 1L in last 5, 3W 4D 3L in last 10, 1.3 ppg, 1.2 goals conceded per game

• H2H: Juve Stabia won both recent meetings (2–1 at Empoli, 2–0 at their ground)

• Empoli xG against: 1.84 per game vs Juve Stabia xG against: 1.16 per game

• Empoli's last two home games: 0–2 and 2–4 defeats

My pick: away win for Juve Stabia at 3.0.