Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Energie Cottbus at home against 1. FC Nürnberg, and if I'm being honest, the form books are telling a pretty clear story here.
Nürnberg have been absolutely flying. Seven wins, three draws and no defeats in their last ten games — that's 2.4 points per game and 2.6 goals scored per game while only conceding 1.3. In their last five, they've won three and drawn two, including a 4-4 thriller with Wolfsburg at home on 10 October and a 3-1 friendly win over Ingolstadt on 2 October. They've scored in every one of those last five. That's a side with confidence, sharpness and a bit of swagger about them.
Now look at Cottbus. They lost 3-1 to Darmstadt on 10 October, and that's the tip of the iceberg. Over their last ten games, they've managed just two wins, three draws and five losses — 0.9 points per game and 2.4 goals conceded per game. They're leaking goals left, right and centre. Yes, they got a 3-0 win away to Karlsruhe on 13 September and a 4-4 draw with Wolfsburg on 5 September, but the overall picture is one of a side struggling to hold a shape.
The home record for Cottbus over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses, which isn't terrible on its own, but that's a longer stretch and their most recent home outing was a 1-1 draw with St. Pauli on 20 September. Meanwhile, Nürnberg's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses, with 2 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded. Solid enough.
Now, the counter-argument. There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we can't lean on history. Cottbus do have that home record of 8 wins in 20, and they've scored in every one of their last five games. The 4-4 draw with Wolfsburg showed they can turn up with the big stuff. And the market has them at 3.25 for a win, which means the bookies aren't writing them off entirely.
But here's the thing — the gap in recent form is stark. Nürnberg are on 7 wins from 10, Cottbus on 2. One side is scoring 2.6 per game, the other 1.9. One side is conceding 1.3 per game, the other 2.4. That's not a close one.
Key Points:
- 1. FC Nürnberg: 7W 3D 0L in last 10, scoring 2.6 per game, conceding 1.3
- Energie Cottbus: 2W 3D 5L in last 10, conceding 2.4 per game, lost their last game 3-1
- No head-to-head on record between the two sides
- Cottbus home record: 8W 8D 4L over 20 games; Nürnberg away: 6W 9D 5L over 20 games
- Both teams' last 5 games saw 4 out of 5 go over 2.5 goals
Verdict: I'm going with the 1. FC Nürnberg away win at 2.08. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the price gives you a bit of cushion for a side that's been in the zone.