Preview
Value VinnyErzurumspor FK host Eyüpspor on 17 October in the Süper Lig, and the numbers here are telling a story that's hard to argue with.
The case for the hosts is built on a home record that has been exceptional. Across 20 home games dating back to October 2025, Erzurumspor FK have won 15, drawn 4 and lost just once, averaging 2.45 points per game. They score 2.55 goals per game at home and concede only 0.6, keeping 13 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Their most recent home results include 1–0 victories over Samsunspor on 20 September and Konyaspor on 5 September — low-scoring wins that reflect a disciplined, controlled approach. The 0–0 draw at Alanyaspor on 10 October, while frustrating, still kept the clean sheet count ticking.
Eyüpspor's away record paints a very different picture. Over 20 away games spanning 12 months, they have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 12, averaging just 0.7 points per game. They score 0.8 goals per game away and concede 2.05, keeping only 1 clean sheet in 20. More alarmingly, their current run is four consecutive losses in which they have scored zero goals and conceded 17. They failed to score in four of their last five matches, and their most recent outing was a 0–4 home defeat to Göztepe on 12 October, in which they received a red card in the ninth minute. The Fenerbahçe 8–0 away loss on 20 September and the 0–3 at Çorum FK on 6 September make the pattern clear.
The head-to-head is entirely historical — all six meetings between these sides date back at least two years, with the most recent on 11 May 2024. Those older fixtures showed Eyüpspor winning three of six, but they carry no weight for current form. The matchup comparison is where the real signal lives: Erzurumspor's home record of 15 wins in 20 games against Eyüpspor's away record of 3 wins in 20 is a gap that speaks for itself. Erzurumspor score 2.55 per game at home; Eyüpspor score 0.8 per game away. Erzurumspor concede 0.6 at home; Eyüpspor concede 2.05 away. The clean sheet split — 13 to 1 — is the most telling single number in this fixture.
The counter-argument is that Erzurumspor's recent form across all venues is mixed. Their last five games produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with the most recent being that 0–0 draw. They failed to score in two of those five, and their xG figures (0.73 per game for, 1.35 per game against over six games) suggest they are not dominating as their home record implies. Eyüpspor did pick up a 2–1 home win over Alanyaspor on 30 August, showing they can find a way to score when the conditions are right. But that was six weeks ago, and the four games since have been a different story entirely.
Key Points:
- Erzurumspor FK's home record: 15W 4D 1L in 20 games, 2.55 goals scored per game, 13 clean sheets
- Eyüpspor's away record: 3W 5D 12L in 20 games, 0.8 goals scored per game, 1 clean sheet
- Eyüpspor's current run: 4 consecutive losses, 0 goals scored, 17 conceded
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (all meetings 2+ years old); current form and venue records are the relevant evidence
- Erzurumspor's last 5 games: 2W 2D 1L, with a 0–0 draw as the most recent result
The weight of evidence points firmly to Erzurumspor FK at home. I'm backing the home win at 1.67.