Preview
Mr SimpleErzurumspor FK host Eyüpspor on 17 October in the Süper Lig, and if you've got a spare five minutes to check the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Start with the home record. Erzurumspor FK have won 15 of their last 20 home games, drawing 4 and losing just 1. That's 2.45 points per game, 2.55 goals scored per game, and 13 clean sheets in those 20. They've only failed to score in 2 of 20 at home. In short, when they're on their own patch, they win. A lot. And their last two home games were both 1-0 wins — over Samsunspor on 20 September and over Konyaspor on 5 September — so the pattern is holding.
Now look at Eyüpspor on the road. Three wins, five draws, 12 losses in 20 away games. 0.7 points per game. They've scored 0.8 per game and conceded 2.05. Only one clean sheet in 20. And if that record wasn't bad enough, their current form is grim: four straight losses, scoring zero in all four of them and conceding 17. They lost 0-4 to Göztepe five days ago, 0-8 to Fenerbahçe three weeks ago, 0-2 to Rizespor, and 0-3 to Çorum FK. That's not a team having a rough patch; that's a team that's gone quiet.
The head-to-head is entirely historical — the last five meetings all date back two to four years, so I'd treat it as a footnote rather than a guide. What matters is what these two sides are doing right now, and the gap between their home and away records is wide.
The counter-argument? Well, Erzurumspor aren't perfect. They drew 0-0 at Alanyaspor just seven days ago and lost 0-3 to Beşiktaş five weeks back. Their last five games are 2W 2D 1L, which is fine but not dominant. And Eyüpspor did pick up a 2-1 win at home against Alanyaspor on 30 August, so they're not without a spark. But one win in five, sandwiched between four defeats where they failed to score, doesn't change the picture much.
Key Points:
- Erzurumspor FK: 15W 4D 1L in 20 home games, 2.55 goals per game, 13 clean sheets
- Eyüpspor: 3W 5D 12L in 20 away games, 0.8 goals per game, 1 clean sheet
- Eyüpspor have lost their last 4, scoring 0 in all of them and conceding 17
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (2–4 years old), so current form and venue records carry the weight
- Erzurumspor's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, with both home games won 1-0
The market prices Erzurumspor's win at 1.67, implying about 60%. My read, based on the home record and Eyüpspor's current form, is that Erzurumspor are more likely than that to take this one. I'd put them at around 65%.
Verdict: Erzurumspor FK home win at 1.67.