Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Erzurumspor FK hosting Eyüpspor in the Süper Lig on 17 October, and honestly this looks like a braai where the meat's already on the coals and the other side is still trying to find the lighter.
Erzurumspor at home are the real deal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 15, drawn 4 and lost just once. That's 2.45 points per game, 2.55 goals scored per game, and 13 clean sheets out of 20. Their opponents have failed to score in 13 of those 20. This is a ground where the visitors come and go without a goal, and Erzurumspor put the ball in the back of the net.
Now look at Eyüpspor on the road. Their last 20 away games? Three wins, five draws, 12 losses. They score 0.8 per game and concede 2.05. They've kept just one clean sheet in 20. And in 11 of those 20 away games, they haven't scored at all. That's not a team that travels well — that's a team that packs the car and drives home early.
And their current form? Bro, it's rough. Eyüpspor have lost their last four matches, scored zero goals in those four, and conceded 17. They got demolished 0-4 at home by Göztepe on 12 October, got an 8-0 thrashing at Fenerbahçe on 20 September, and lost 0-2 and 0-3 in the games before that. The only win in their last five was a 2-1 over Alanyaspor back on 30 August. This team is in crisis, plain and simple.
The head-to-head is all historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — so I'm not going to lean on it. What it does show is that in six older meetings, Eyüpspor won three, Erzurumspor won one, and two were draws. But those games were in the 1. Lig, two to four years ago. The current form and venue records tell a very different story.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Erzurumspor's last five games show 2W 2D 1L, including a 0-3 loss at Beşiktaş on 11 September and a 0-0 draw at Alanyaspor on 10 October. They've only scored three goals in those five. Their xG against is 1.35 per game over six games, which means they're still conceding chances. And the historical head-to-head, while dated, does show Eyüpspor have a history of winning at this ground. So it's not a lock.
But the numbers at this venue — 15 wins from 20, 13 clean sheets, 2.55 goals per game — against a side that's lost four straight and hasn't scored in any of them? That's a massive ask for Eyüpspor. I rate Erzurumspor's chance of winning higher than the market's 59.88% implied figure, and the football evidence backs that up.
Key Points:
- Erzurumspor FK: 15W 4D 1L in 20 home games, 2.55 goals per game, 13 clean sheets
- Eyüpspor: 3W 5D 12L in 20 away games, 0.8 goals per game, 1 clean sheet
- Eyüpspor lost their last 4 matches, scoring 0 and conceding 17
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (no meetings in the last 12 months)
- Erzurumspor's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, only 3 goals scored
My verdict: Erzurumspor FK home win.