Esbjerg vs Hvidovre Prediction

Right, so we've got Esbjerg hosting Hvidovre on 31 October in the 1. Division, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Hvidovre have been absolutely flying. Over their last 10 games, they've won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0. That's 2.4 points per game, scoring 2 a game and conceding just 1. In their last 5, they've picked up 3 wins and 2 draws without a defeat, and they've scored in every single one of those 5. Their away record over 20 games tells the same story: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, 1.45 points per game, and 1.55 goals scored per outing. They're a team that goes out and gets results on the road.

Now look at Esbjerg. They lost 0-1 to FC Nordsjaelland just three days before this fixture, and before that they've drawn 0-0 at Aarhus Fremad and 3-3 at home to Aalborg. Over their last 10, they've managed 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, scoring 1.7 a game but conceding 1.4. In their last 5, they've failed to score in 3 of the 5. Their home record over 20 games is 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses at 1.25 points per game. They're not terrible at home, but they're not firing either.

The head-to-head gives Esbjerg a small comfort: the only recent meeting at their ground was a 1-0 win for them back in April. At Hvidovre's ground, Esbjerg won 2 of the 3 recent meetings (4-1 in May and 3-1 in November), with Hvidovre picking up the 2-1 in August. The overall picture over the last 12 months is 3 wins for Esbjerg, 1 for Hvidovre. So the head-to-head leans their way, but Hvidovre's recent form tells a different story.

The counter-argument is that Esbjerg's home record is full of draws — 7 of their 20 home games — and that 1-0 H2H win at this ground shows they can keep things tight. Plus, Hvidovre's last game was a 2-2 draw, so they're not invincible. But when you look at the numbers, Hvidovre's consistency on the road and their scoring record (they haven't failed to score in any of their last 10) make them the side to back.

The market has Hvidovre at 2.2, which prices them at 45.45%. Given the form gap — 7 wins and 0 losses in 10 for Hvidovre versus 3 wins and 4 losses for Esbjerg — I'd put Hvidovre's chance closer to 52%. That's a decent chunk of value at that price.

Key Points:

• Hvidovre are unbeaten in their last 10 games (7W 3D 0L) and have scored in every one

• Esbjerg lost their last game and failed to score in 3 of their last 5

• Hvidovre's away record (8W 5D 7L, 1.45 ppg) outperforms Esbjerg's home record (6W 7D 7L, 1.25 ppg)

• Esbjerg won the only recent meeting at this ground (1-0), and won 2 of 3 at Hvidovre's ground

• Hvidovre's scoring consistency (0/10 failed to score) makes them the side to trust

My pick: Hvidovre away win.