Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Estac Troyes hosting Lens on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a clear flavour to it.
Estac Troyes have been through the wringer lately. Five games, no wins. They lost 0-2 to Marseille at home just six days ago, and before that they were getting hammered 2-6 by Strasbourg at the same ground. In their last five, they've scored just 4 goals and conceded 14. That's 2.8 a game leaking out the back, and they've failed to score in three of those five. The home record over 20 games looks decent — 12 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses — but that's a 12-month span and the last five tell a very different story.
Lens, on the other hand, are in a different gear. Two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five. They beat Lyon 2-1 at home on 9 October (with a red card in the 84th minute, mind you), and they've scored 8 goals in that stretch. Their xG for is sitting at 2.61 per game across four recent matches, which is a massive step above Estac Troyes' 1.49. Lens away over 20 games: 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, scoring 2.15 per game. That's a team that travels well.
The head-to-head is telling. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in February at Estac Troyes's ground, and Lens won 4-2. Going further back, Lens have won 9 of 16 meetings, with Estac Troyes managing just 4. The older games are historical, but the pattern is consistent.
Now, the counter-argument: Estac Troyes' home record over 20 games is actually the better one — 1.95 points per game versus Lens' 1.6 away. And Lens did lose their last game, 0-2 to Sporting CP in the Champions League. So they're not flying. But one loss to a top European side doesn't erase the fact that they've scored 8 in 5 and Estac Troyes have scored 4.
Key Points:
- Estac Troyes: 0W 1D 4L in last 5, conceding 2.8 per game
- Lens: 2W 1D 2L in last 5, scoring 1.6 per game
- Lens won the only recent H2H meeting 4-2 at this ground
- Lens xG for (2.61 per game) dwarfs Estac Troyes' (1.49 per game)
- Estac Troyes home record (12W in 20) is solid but current form is poor
My pick: Lens away win.