Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this cracker of a match! We've got the league leaders Estac Troyes hosting third-placed Saint Etienne in what could be a proper title six-pointer.

Troyes have been absolutely bossing it at home this season - and I mean BOSSING it. They've won every single one of their last five home games, and get this, they're averaging three goals per game on their own patch! That's some serious firepower. They've been banging them in for fun recently too - 3-1 against Amiens, 5-2 against Guingamp, 3-0 against Nancy. Their only slip-up in the last ten was that 2-0 loss to Dunkerque back in August.

Saint Etienne, on the other hand, are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde side at the moment. They can look brilliant one minute - like that 6-0 hammering of PAU - and then completely fall apart the next, getting stuffed 4-0 by Annecy. They've only managed 1.2 goals per game on their travels this season, which is a bit worrying when you're facing a team that scores three at home for breakfast!

Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head record shows Saint Etienne have had Troyes' number over the years, including that embarrassing 5-0 drubbing last time out. But form, as they say, is temporary, class is permanent - and right now, Troyes are looking the classier side at home.

The stats paint a pretty clear picture: Troyes are scoring for fun at home, Saint Etienne struggle to score away, and the goal expectancy suggests we're in for a few goals. With Troyes averaging 3 goals at home and Saint Etienne only managing 1.2 away, the home side looks like they've got the edge here.

Both teams have been scoring regularly though - 60% of both sides' recent games have seen both teams find the net. But with Troyes' defensive record improving lately and Saint Etienne's away scoring issues, I'm leaning towards the home win here.