Estudiantes L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction

Alright, settle down at the back and get the pints in — Mr Simple's got a cracker from the Liga Profesional Argentina for you. Estudiantes L.P. are hosting Sarmiento Junin, and if the numbers are anything to go by, this one's got home win written all over it like graffiti on a tunnel wall.

Estudiantes are flying high and unbeaten in their last ten — six wins, four draws, zero defeats. They're tighter at the back than a pair of skinny jeans, conceding just 0.4 goals per game and keeping six clean sheets in that run. At home? Don't even bother looking for an upset. They've won all four of their recent home games on the spin, banging in 2.25 goals a game while letting in just 0.5. They even had the cheek to beat Boca Juniors 2-1 recently and held Defensa Y Justicia to a 0-0 draw. Solid as a rock, these lads.

Now, Sarmiento Junin. Bless 'em, they're trying, but away from home they're about as threatening as a declawed kitten. Lost three of their last five on the road, winning precisely none of them — that's zero wins, two draws, three defeats if you're counting. They're only managing 0.6 goals per game away and conceding 1.2. Their last away day was a 1-0 defeat at Huracan, and before that they got turned over 2-1 at Independ. Rivadavia. When they travel, the bus home is usually a quiet one.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the visitors too. Estudiantes have won three of the four meetings at home, and while Sarmiento did nick a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture, that was on their own patch. Here on Estudiantes' turf, it's a different story entirely.

The bookies have priced Estudiantes at 1.65, which isn't exactly lottery money, but when you've got a side that's 100% at home against one that's 0% away, those odds look like a nice bit of value to me. The goal expectancies point to a low-scoring affair (1.73 vs 0.55), so don't expect a goal-fest, but the home side should have enough to get the job done.

Key Points:

• Estudiantes are unbeaten in 10 games (6W, 4D) and have won all of their last 4 home matches

• Sarmiento have lost 3 of their last 5 away games, winning none (0W, 2D, 3L)

• Estudiantes have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10, conceding just 0.4 goals per game on average

• Sarmiento have only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 and concede 1.1 goals per game on average

• Head-to-head at home: Estudiantes have won 3 of 4 meetings vs Sarmiento

• Recent form includes Estudiantes beating Boca Juniors 2-1 and Sarmiento losing 1-0 at Huracan

The Verdict:

It's not the juiciest price you'll see this weekend, but it's a banker. Estudiantes' fortress home form against Sarmiento's travel sickness makes the home win the only play here. Back Estudiantes L.P. to take the three points.