Preview
Mr SimpleRight, the big one. Everton and Chelsea, 17 October, Premier League. And if you've been following the numbers, there's a story here that the bookmakers might not have quite got right.
Here's the thing that jumps out: Everton's home defence is doing its thing. Over their last 20 home games, the Toffees have kept 7 clean sheets and conceded just 1.3 goals per game. Now look at Chelsea on the road: 1 clean sheet in 20 away games, 1.9 conceded per game. That's a big ask for Chelsea's front line to overcome, especially when you factor in that they've lost both of their last two away trips — 0–3 at Brentford and 1–2 at Arsenal.
Everton themselves have been in a good place. Unbeaten in their last five (two wins, three draws), and they've picked up two 1–0 wins at home against Ipswich and Wolves. The most recent time these two met at Everton's ground, back in March, ended 3–0 to the hosts. Chelsea's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, and that 9-loss tally is the number that keeps me up at night for the Blues.
Now, the counter-argument, and it's a fair one. Chelsea are the better team overall. Their last 10 games have seen them score 2.9 per game and win 6 of 10. The 5–1 over Bournemouth and the 6–3 League Cup win over Leeds showed they've got the firepower. On the road, they've failed to score in only 4 of 20 away games, so the front line is more than capable of finding the net even if the back line is leaking.
The goals market is a bit of a tug-of-war. Chelsea's last five matches have all gone over 2.5, and 17 of their last 20 away games have done the same. But Everton's home games have gone under 2.5 in 11 of 20, and their last five have seen under 2.5 in three of five. So it's not a slam-dunk on either side of the goals question.
Key Points:
- Everton are unbeaten in their last five and have kept 7 clean sheets in 20 home games
- Chelsea have lost both of their last 2 away games and conceded 1.9 per game on the road
- The recent meeting at Everton's ground ended 3–0 to the hosts
- Chelsea's attack is strong (2.9 per game in last 10) but their away defence is porous
- The market favours Chelsea, but the venue evidence and Chelsea's shaky away form point toward the Toffees
My take: the defensive edge at this ground, combined with Chelsea's shaky away form, gives Everton a good shot. I'd rate their chances at around 32%, which sits just above the 30.86% the market implies. That's a small but real edge, and it's the one I'm happy to back.
Verdict: Everton home win at 3.24.