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Right, so we've got Everton hosting Chelsea on 17 October, and I must say this one has me scratching my head a bit, boetjie.
The strongest case here is for Chelsea. Look at their last five games: they've scored 14 and conceded 11, with every single one of those matches going over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 across all venues, they've scored 29 goals at 2.9 per game, and 9 of those 10 went over 2.5. Their away record over 20 games shows 17 of 20 going over 2.5, and they've only managed 1 clean sheet in 20 away fixtures. Chelsea are the side that scores, and they score a lot. That 5-1 hammering of Bournemouth on 10 October and the 6-3 League Cup win over Leeds on 9 September show a side with serious intent up front.
But here's where it gets interesting for Everton. The Toffees are unbeaten in their last five - two wins and three draws, no defeats. At home over 20 games, they've kept 7 clean sheets and conceded just 1.3 per game. In the recent head-to-head at this very ground, back on 21 March, Everton put 3 past Chelsea and kept a clean sheet. That's a telling result. Everton's home record of 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in 20 games gives them 1.35 points per game, which edges out Chelsea's 1.25 from their 20 away games. The 1-0 wins over Ipswich and Wolves at home, plus the 2-2 draw with Manchester United, show a side that can grind out results between the flags.
The counter-argument is Chelsea's away inconsistency. In their last five, they lost 0-3 at Brentford on 18 September and 1-2 at Arsenal on 6 September. Two of their last five away games ended in defeat, and the scores in those matches tell a story of a defence that's been exposed. Everton, meanwhile, have only failed to score in 1 of their last 5, and they've kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5. The 0-0 draw at Tottenham on 12 September showed they can park the bus when needed.
The head-to-head is split in the last 12 months: Everton won 3-0 at home in March, Chelsea won 2-0 at their own ground in December. One win each, both clean sheets. The older meetings - a 6-0 Chelsea win at their ground two years ago and a 0-0 at Everton's ground - are historical and don't tell us much about what's happening now.
Key Points:
- Everton are unbeaten in their last five matches (2W 3D 0L) and won the recent head-to-head at this ground 3-0
- Chelsea's last five games all went over 2.5 goals, and 9 of their last 10 did the same
- Chelsea's away record over 20 games: 7W 4D 9L, with 17/20 over 2.5 and only 1 clean sheet
- Everton's home record: 7W 6D 7L, 7 clean sheets in 20 games, 1.35 points per game
- The last 12 months of head-to-head is split: one win each, both clean sheets
After weighing all the evidence, the football points toward a high-scoring Chelsea edge, but the prices on offer don't give me the confidence to put money down on any single outcome. No Bet.