Everton vs Newcastle Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this Premier League clash between Everton and Newcastle. The Toffees are sitting pretty in 11th with 18 points, while the Geordies are just behind in 14th on 15 points - only three points separating these two, so we're in for a proper scrap.

Everton's recent form has been a bit of a mixed bag, but there are signs of life. They've picked up some decent results lately, including that cracking 0-1 win away at Manchester United and a solid 2-0 home victory against Fulham. At Goodison, they've been decent enough - winning 40% of their home games and keeping things tight at the back, conceding just 1.0 per game on their own patch.

Now Newcastle, well, they're the definition of Jekyll and Hyde this season. Overall they've got 6 wins from 10 games, which looks decent on paper. But dig a bit deeper and you'll see the story - they're absolutely brilliant at home (100% win rate) but absolutely shocking on their travels. Lost their last four away games on the spin, conceding a whopping 2.5 goals per game away from home. That's some proper defensive frailty right there.

When these two have met in the past, it's been pretty even stevens. Three wins each in the head-to-head, with a couple of draws. At Goodison, Everton have won 2 out of 5 against Newcastle, so they've got a decent record here.

Looking at the goals, neither side are exactly free-scoring. Everton average just 0.8 goals per game overall (though they do bump it up to 1.0 at home). Newcastle score more overall with 1.7, but that drops to just 1.0 on the road. Both teams are conceding around 1.2 goals per game, which suggests we could be in for a tight affair.

The bookies have got this as a close one - Everton at 2.80, Newcastle at 2.50, with the draw at 3.20. But I'm looking at the goals market here, specifically Under 2.5 at 1.80. Six of the last nine meetings between these two have gone under 2.5 goals, and given Newcastle's away defensive woes and Everton's lack of firepower, I reckon we're in for another low-scoring encounter.

Key Points:

• Newcastle have lost their last 4 away games, conceding 2.5 goals per game

• Everton have won 40% of their home games this season

• 6 out of 9 head-to-head meetings have gone under 2.5 goals

• Both teams average under 1.2 goals conceded per game

• Everton have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 games

Given the stats, I'm backing this to stay under 2.5 goals. Newcastle's away form is shocking, and Everton don't score enough for this to turn into a goal-fest. Should be a tight, nervy affair at Goodison.