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Right, grab a pint and settle in, because we've got a proper Erediviever on the cards. Excelsior are at home to take on Groningen, and there's a bit of a story here worth a quick chat.
Let's start with the hosts. Excelsior have been absolutely flying over the last stretch. Six wins, two draws and just two losses in their last ten games, and they've been scoring at a rate of 2.8 a game. That's not just numbers on a page — it's the 3-0 hammering at Willem II, the 2-2 draw at Ajax's end, and the 2-1 at home to Sparta Rotterdam. They've got 10 goals in their last five and only 7 conceded, and in that latest ten, every single game went over 2.5. That's a team with the confidence and the fire.
Now, the head-to-head gives us a little nudge. In May this year, Excelsior went to Groningen's ground and came away with a 3-2 win. That's the most recent meeting at that end, and it tells you Excelsior can handle this fixture on the road. At Excelsior's own ground, though, the last meeting was a 0-2 loss to Groningen back in December, so the hosts haven't got it all their way at home against this lot. The two meetings within the last 12 months have been split one each, and the older meetings going back three years are just historical record — they don't tell us much about where these teams are now.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Groningen's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses, which isn't great, but they do score 1.35 a game on the road. More importantly, their defensive record away is a worry — 1.75 conceded per game, and their xG against in recent matches has been sitting at 2.15 a game. That's a lot of goals leaking through. They lost 1-5 to PSV and 2-3 to Fortuna Sittard, so they're not exactly a wall. On the flip side, they did put 3 past PEC Zwolle at home three weeks ago, so they've got the edge when it counts. Their latest ten has 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, which is a bit patchy.
So where does that leave us? Excelsior are in the form, they've got the goals, and the recent H2H at Groningen's ground went their way. But Groningen's away defence is leaking, and they've got the quality to hurt you. The over 2.5 numbers on both sides' records — 12 of 20 for Excelsior at home, 10 of 20 for Groningen away — suggest this is likely to be a goal-fest. Both teams' BTTS records lean yes as well, with 12 of 20 at Excelsior's ground and 13 of 20 for Groningen on the road.
Key Points:
- Excelsior: 6W 2D 2L in last 10, 2.8 goals scored per game, 10/10 over 2.5
- Recent H2H: Excelsior won 3-2 away at Groningen (May 2026); Groningen won 2-0 at Excelsior (Dec 2025)
- Groningen away: 7W 3D 10L, 1.75 conceded per game, xG against 2.15 per game
- Both teams' records point to a high-scoring affair: 12/20 over 2.5 at Excelsior's ground, 10/20 over 2.5 for Groningen away
- Excelsior's home record is mixed: 7W 3D 10L in 20 games
The available prices couldn't be used for a recommendation on this one, so I'm sitting this one out. No Bet.