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Right, folks, pull up a chair for a proper little doggy's corner of the Eredivisie. Excelsior are at home on 11 October to welcome Groningen, and I've got a soft spot for the underdog in this one, so let's see what the numbers whisper.
The strongest case here leans toward Excelsior. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 2.0 points per game and scoring 2.8 goals per match while conceding just 1.4. That's a side that's been scoring freely and keeping the leaks to a minimum. Groningen, by contrast, have managed 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 10, scoring 1.6 per game and conceding 1.7. Excelsior have also failed to score in just 0 of those 10, whereas Groningen have gone blank in 2. In the head-to-head within the last 12 months, Excelsior pulled off a 3–2 away win at Groningen's ground on 2 May 2026, and the only meeting at this venue in that window — back on 5 December 2025 — ended 0–2 to Groningen. So the recent head-to-head is split, but the form gap over the last 10 games is clear in Excelsior's favour.
Now, the counter-argument. Groningen's most recent outing was a 3–0 home win over PEC Zwolle on 18 September, and that's their current run — one win, three goals, zero conceded. They've also scored in all 5 of their last 5 and gone over 2.5 in 4 of those 5. Their away record over 20 games shows 1.35 goals scored per game, and the head-to-head at this specific venue in December 2025 was a comfortable 2–0 for the visitors. Excelsior's last game was a 2–2 draw at Ajax's ground on 19 September, and their home record over 20 games carries 10 losses alongside the 7 wins. So Groningen are not a side to write off, and the venue history in this window does favour them.
Key Points:
- Excelsior's last 10: 6W 2D 2L, 2.8 goals scored per game, 1.4 conceded per game
- Groningen's last 10: 4W 3D 3L, 1.6 scored per game, 1.7 conceded per game
- Recent head-to-head: Excelsior won 3–2 at Groningen (2 May 2026); Groningen won 2–0 at Excelsior (5 December 2025)
- Both teams' home/away records over 20 games are identical at 7W 3D 10L
- Excelsior have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Groningen have scored in all 5 as well
The football here is genuinely interesting, and I'd love to back the little doggy, but the available prices could not be used for a recommendation. My verdict: No Bet.