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Must, you must look at the form, not the name, you see. Excelsior, they have been scoring with a hunger — 2.8 goals per game across their last ten matches, and in every single one of those ten, the total crossed 2.5. That is a team that breathes goals, friend. Their last five at all venues produced 10 goals for and 7 against, with two wins, two draws and one loss. At home over the last 20 games, they have managed 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses, scoring 1.3 per game and conceding 1.35. The numbers say they are a side that scores and concedes in equal measure on their own ground.
But here, the wise one must also look at the other side. Groningen, on the road over 20 away games, have posted the same 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. Yet they concede 1.75 per game away, compared to 1.35 per game for Excelsior at home. Their last five matches tell a less comfortable story: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, with 9 scored and 11 conceded. The 1–5 defeat to PSV Eindhoven on 23 August and the 2–3 loss to Fortuna Sittard on 28 August sit in that stretch, and the 2–2 draw against Twente at home on 6 September did little to quiet the nerves.
The head-to-head, within the last 12 months, is split. On 2 May 2026, Excelsior won 3–2 at Groningen's ground. Before that, on 5 December 2025, Groningen won 2–0 at Excelsior's ground — the only meeting at this venue in the recent window. So the hosts have not won here against this opponent in the last year, but they have won the most recent meeting overall. The older meetings, stretching back to 2023, are historical record and do not carry the weight of current form.
The matchup tables show both sides in remarkably similar shape. Over 20 home games, Excelsior have 12 over-2.5 results; over 20 away games, Groningen have 10. Both teams have failed to score in 4 of their 20 venue-specific games. The latest-10 comparison, however, tilts toward Excelsior: 6 wins to Groningen's 4, 2.8 goals per game to 1.6, and 1.4 conceded to 1.7. Groningen's xG against in four recent games with data sits at 2.15 per game, which suggests the goals they concede are not entirely bad luck. Excelsior's xG against in three recent games with data is 1.29 per game, which is more comfortable.
The counter-argument, and it is a strong one, is that Groningen's away record is not poor — 7 wins in 20 is respectable — and their 3–0 win over PEC Zwolle on 18 September shows they can still find the back of the net. Excelsior's last game was a 2–2 draw at Ajax, and their current run is a single draw. The form is good, but it is not unbroken. In the end, the evidence points to a tight contest where neither side holds a decisive advantage, and the balanced venue-specific records keep any single outcome from standing out with confidence.
Key Points:
- Excelsior have scored in all of their last 10 matches and gone over 2.5 goals in every one
- Groningen concede 1.75 per game away over 20 games, compared to 1.35 per game for Excelsior at home
- The only recent meeting at Excelsior's ground ended 0–2 to Groningen on 5 December 2025
- Excelsior's last 10: 6W 2D 2L; Groningen's last 10: 4W 3D 3L
- Both teams have identical venue-specific W-D-L records (7W 3D 10L)
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