Exeter City vs Lincoln Prediction

Alright, listen up! Tuesday night down in Devon and we've got a right mismatch on the cards. League One's runaway leaders Lincoln are rolling into town to face an Exeter side that's been struggling to find their dancing shoes lately.

The Grecians are in a proper rut, mate. One win in their last ten tells you everything you need to know. They've drawn six of those, including goalless stalemates against Northampton and Mansfield, but when they lose, they lose big – that 5-1 drubbing by promotion-chasing Bolton and a 4-0 spanking from Rotherham were about as pleasant as a punch in the gut. At home, it's even worse – zero wins in their last five on their own patch, scoring just 0.6 goals per game while leaking 2.2. They couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo right now.

Now flip the coin and look at Lincoln. Top of the league with 74 points, flying high and fancy-free. Eight wins in their last ten, unbeaten in that stretch, and they just went to second-placed Cardiff – who've been in cracking form themselves – and slapped them 2-0 at the weekend. They're banging in 2.5 goals per game and keeping it tighter than a drum at the back – six clean sheets in those ten games. Away from home? Don't worry about it. They've won 80% of their last five on the road, scoring 2.2 per game and conceding just 0.6.

I know the head-to-head looks tight historically – two wins each and five draws in the last nine – but form is temporary and class is permanent. Lincoln are a different animal this season, while Exeter are running on fumes.

Key Points:

• Lincoln are unbeaten in 10 games (W8 D2), sitting top of League One with 74 points

• Exeter have won just 1 of their last 10, drawing 6 and losing 3

• Exeter's home form: 0 wins in last 5 (3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 0.6 goals per game

• Lincoln's away form: 80% win rate in last 5, scoring 2.2 per game with 6 clean sheets in last 10 overall

• Lincoln beat 2nd-placed Cardiff 2-0 away in their last outing

The Verdict:

The bookies have Lincoln at 2.06 to win, which is over evens for the league leaders against a side in the bottom half. That's value, plain and simple. Exeter's defensive frailties – conceding 19 goals in their last 10 games – against Lincoln's potent attack – 25 scored in 10 – suggests the visitors will have too much quality. Get on the away win.