Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eredivisie clash. Excelsior at home to AZ Alkmaar. On paper, you'd fancy AZ, sitting 7th with 33 points, while Excelsior are down in 10th on 26. But football's not played on paper, is it? And the recent form book tells a different story.

Excelsior have been a right tough cookie to crack lately. In their last ten, they've only lost twice – and one of those was a 5-1 hiding from the mighty PSV, which happens to the best of 'em. Look at the other results: a 2-2 draw with Ajax, a 0-0 away at a solid Twente side, and most tellingly, a 1-1 draw away at AZ Alkmaar just a few weeks back on January 21st. They've also beaten Ajax away and NAC Breda twice. They're picking up points against the better sides and their defence is showing signs of improvement. At home, they've won 40%, drawn 40%, and lost only 20% of their last five.

Now, AZ. They're a bit all over the shop, if we're being honest. Their last ten reads three wins, four draws, three losses. They can smash Ajax 6-0 in the cup one week, then lose 3-1 away to PEC Zwolle the next. Their away form is a particular worry: in their last three on the road, it's two losses (to PEC and Fortuna Sittard) and one win at Telstar. They're conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game away from home recently. That's a leaky bucket.

The head-to-head history heavily favours AZ with five wins in nine meetings. But dig a bit deeper: Excelsior's home record against AZ is actually decent – two wins, one draw, one loss from four games. And that recent 1-1 draw shows there's not much between them this season.

When you crunch the numbers, both teams score in 60% of their recent games, and over 2.5 goals has happened in most of their past meetings. The goal expectancy models are pointing towards a few goals, with an average of about 3.4 expected. AZ will likely have more of the ball and more shots – they average 15 a game to Excelsior's 9.7 – but Excelsior are organised and resilient.

So, where's the value? AZ are the favourites at 2.03, but with their shaky away form and Excelsior's stubbornness, that price feels a bit short. The draw at 4.00, however, catches my eye. Both teams draw a lot, the reverse fixture was level, and a point wouldn't be a disaster for either side here.

Key Points:

Excelsior are in decent form (W4 D4 L2 last 10) and are hard to beat, especially against top-half sides.

AZ Alkmaar are inconsistent, with poor recent away form (conceding 2.33 goals per game on the road).

The reverse fixture ended 1-1 just a few weeks ago.

Excelsior's home record vs AZ is strong (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).

• Both teams score regularly (60% of the time for each side).

Summary: This has the feel of a tight, competitive match. Excelsior will be buoyed by their recent results against good teams and will fancy another point. AZ have the quality but lack consistency on their travels. With the value sitting squarely with the draw, that's where my money's going.