Walsall vs Crewe Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this Boxing Day belter. Walsall are sitting pretty at the top of League Two, but Crewe are no mugs sitting in tenth. It's a proper festive fixture that could go either way.

Walsall have been flying lately, no two ways about it. Seven wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last ten tells you everything. They've beaten some good sides too – a 3-1 win over Bromley, who are third, and a 1-0 away win at Oldham. But here's the rub: their home form has been a bit wobbly. In their last three at home, they've drawn with Shrewsbury, lost to Colchester, and beaten Bromley. That's a win, a draw, and a loss. They're scoring 1.33 goals a game at home but also letting in 1.33. So they're not exactly Fortress Bescot at the moment.

Crewe, on the other hand, are a bit of a puzzle. They've only won three of their last ten, but they've drawn five. They love a goal, mind you. They've bagged 19 in those ten games, averaging nearly two a match. Away from home, they're even more potent, scoring two goals a game on average. The problem is at the back – they've only kept one clean sheet in ten. They drew 1-1 with bottom-half Bristol Rovers last time out, but also smashed four past Tranmere on the road. They can score against anyone, but they can also concede to anyone.

When we look at the head-to-head, history favours Crewe slightly with four wins to Walsall's two. But the last time they met, back in May, Walsall nicked it 1-0. So recent history says it's tight.

So what's the play here? Walsall are the better team overall, top of the league for a reason. But Crewe score goals for fun, especially on their travels. With Walsall's defence looking a bit leaky at home recently, I fancy Crewe to find the net. And Walsall will surely score at least one themselves – they've only failed to score once in their last ten.

Key Points:

Walsall are league leaders but have won just one of their last three at home.

Crewe score an average of 2.00 goals per game away from home.

Crewe have seen Both Teams Score in 9 of their last 10 matches.

Walsall's defence concedes 1.33 goals per game at home.

• The last H2H was a 1-0 Walsall win, but the two before that featured goals for both sides.

All the numbers point to one thing: goals at both ends. The value, for me, isn't in picking a winner in what could be a tight affair. It's in backing both teams to have a go and get on the scoresheet.