Solihull Moors vs York Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this National League clash. We've got Solihull Moors, sitting comfortably in 10th, hosting a York side that's absolutely flying in second place. The table doesn't lie – York have lost just twice all season and are right in the mix for promotion. This is a classic case of a solid mid-table side up against the big boys.

York's form is the stuff of dreams. Unbeaten in their last ten, with seven wins and three draws. They're not just scraping by, either. They're putting teams to the sword – a 5-0 demolition of Braintree and a 3-0 away win at Carlisle in their last two outings. They score for fun (2.8 per game on average) and are tight at the back, conceding less than a goal a game. On the road, they've won 80% of their last five, scoring over two per trip. They're the real deal.

Solihull Moors are no mugs, mind you. They've got goals in them, especially at home where they've been banging in nearly three a game. They've had some brilliant results themselves, like that 7-1 thrashing of Tamworth and a 5-1 away win at Aldershot. But here's the rub: when they've faced the top sides recently, they've come up short. A 1-0 home loss to league leaders Rochdale and a 2-1 defeat away to Boreham Wood show they can struggle against the elite. Their defence can be got at, conceding 1.5 per game at home.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. York just edged it 1-0 when they met back in September, and they've won four of the nine meetings overall. History suggests it's usually a close one, but York have had the upper hand lately.

So, what's the play? The bookies have York as favourites at 1.73. On paper, that looks about right. But when you dig into the numbers, I think there's a bit of value there. York's consistency and quality should see them through against a Solihull side that, while dangerous, has shown vulnerability against the top teams. I fancy York to get the job done.

Key Points:

Form: York are unbeaten in 10 (W7, D3). Solihull have lost 2 of their last 10.

Goals: Both teams love to attack. Solihull average 2.6 goals scored/conceded per game, York average 2.8 scored/0.9 conceded.

Head-to-Head: York won the reverse fixture 1-0 this season and lead the overall H2H 4-3.

Home/Away: Solihull score 2.83 per game at home but concede 1.5. York score 2.2 per game away and concede just 1.0.

• Odds Value: York to win at 1.73 offers value if you believe, like I do, their chance is closer to 65%.

Summary: This is York's game to lose. They're in a different class this season, full of confidence and goals. Solihull will have a go and might score, but the visitors' quality should tell in the end. I'm backing the away win.