Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction

Alright, mates, let's have a butcher's at this La Liga clash. On paper, it's a no-brainer: Real Madrid are second, Sevilla are ninth. The head-to-head makes even grimmer reading for the visitors – they haven't beaten Real Madrid in the last nine meetings, losing seven and drawing two. You'd think this is a home banker, wouldn't you?

But hold your horses. Let's look at the recent form, because that's where the story gets interesting. Real Madrid's last ten games read like a rollercoaster: three wins, four draws, three losses. More worryingly, their last two games at home were defeats – a 1-2 loss to Manchester City and a 0-2 loss to Celta Vigo. They're only scoring an average of half a goal per game at home in that spell, while conceding two. That's not the fortress we're used to.

Sevilla, on the other hand, are a bit of a mixed bag. They smashed Oviedo 4-0 last time out, but before that, they drew with Valencia and lost to the likes of Real Betis and Espanyol. On their travels, they've won just over a quarter of their games, but they do know where the net is, scoring in five of their last seven away matches.

Here's the juicy bit for us punters. When these two get together, goals happen. Both teams have scored in seven of the last nine head-to-heads. The last five meetings have finished 2-0, 4-2, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-1. That's over 2.5 goals in three of those five, and both teams scoring in three of them too.

So, what's the play? Real Madrid should still win, but at odds of just 1.22, there's no value there for me. The market thinks there's a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals, which feels about right, but the odds of 1.36 are too skinny. The real value, in my book, lies in Both Teams to Score. Sevilla have shown they can score on the road, and Real Madrid's defence has looked leaky at home. At odds of 1.75, I think that's a bet worth having.

Key Points:

Real Madrid have a dominant head-to-head record (7 wins, 2 draws in last 9).

However, Real have lost their last two home games, scoring just once.

Sevilla have scored in 5 of their last 7 away matches.

Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

• Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 6 of the last 9 head-to-head clashes.

The Simple Tip: The stats and the history point towards goals at both ends. I'm backing Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.75.