Exeter City vs Northampton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One tussle. Exeter City are at home, sitting a comfortable five points and six places above Northampton in the table. On paper, you'd fancy the Grecians, especially with that decent home record of late. But football's never that simple, is it? Northampton have got a proper hold over this fixture, and that's where things get interesting.

Exeter's form is a bit of a mixed bag. They've won four of their last ten, which is alright, but that 4-0 home shellacking by Rotherham just a couple of weeks ago is a massive red flag. You don't get turned over like that by a struggling side if everything's rosy. On the flip side, they've had some good results – a 3-0 win over Stevenage and a 1-0 victory against Luton show they can do the business. They're conceding an average of two goals a game over that period, but at home that drops to a more respectable 1.33.

Northampton, meanwhile, are bobbing along in 19th but they're no mugs. Their last ten reads three wins, three draws, and four losses. The key results are those goalless draws away at Bolton (3rd) and at home to Stockport (4th). That tells you they can dig in and frustrate the better sides. They're also coming in off a win, having beaten Stevenage 3-1 last time out in the league. Their problem has been turning draws into wins on the road.

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room – the head-to-head. It's brutal reading for Exeter fans. Northampton have won six of the nine meetings, with Exeter managing just one victory. Even at home, Exeter's record is a nightmare: played five, lost four, drawn one. No wins. It's a proper bogey team situation. In those nine games, both teams have found the net in six of them.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Exeter as favourites at 2.05, but with that historical baggage, I'm not touching it. The value, for me, lies in the goals market. Both teams have been finding the net recently. Northampton have scored in eight of their last ten, and Exeter, despite the odd blip, average 1.33 goals at home. The history screams goals at both ends.

The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at a tasty 2.04. Given the head-to-head trend and the current form of both attacks, that looks like a bit of value to me. Exeter might be fresher with seven days' rest to Northampton's four, but I fancy both to have a go.

Key Points:

Exeter are five points better off but have a terrible record in this fixture (1 win in 9).

Northampton have shown they can get results against top sides, drawing with Bolton and Stockport.

Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings between these two.

Exeter's home defence was breached for four by Rotherham recently.

• Northampton have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.

The Simple Verdict:

Forget the league positions for a minute. This fixture has a pattern, and that pattern usually involves both nets bulging. Northampton love playing Exeter, and Exeter will be desperate to finally get one over on them. That should lead to an open game. At odds of 2.04, Both Teams to Score - Yes is the sensible play here.