Preview
Value VinnyBurnley host Charlton at their ground on 13 October, and the numbers split into two very different stories. Burnley came back from a 4-0 demolition of Watford on 10 October — three days before kickoff — and they have scored in all five of their last matches, netting 8 goals and conceding 7. Charlton, by contrast, have won 0 of their last 5, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 8, with Charlton failing to score in three of those five. Their two most recent away outings were a 1-3 loss at Cardiff and a 0-4 defeat at Stoke, and that is the picture you want to be looking at when you're assessing an away side's threat.
The head-to-head is entirely historical. Every meeting goes back at least 10 years, with Burnley winning 5 of 6 and Charlton picking up just one. In those old fixtures, Burnley scored 14 and conceded 1, and at least one team failed to score in all six. That is dated record, not current form, so I am leaning on what is happening right now rather than what happened a decade ago.
The counter-argument is real and I will not pretend it away. Burnley's home record over 20 games reads 1 win, 11 draws, 8 losses — 0.7 points per game. Charlton's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses — 1.4 points per game. On aggregate, the away side actually outperforms the home side in this specific venue pairing. That is a genuine statistical wrinkle, and it is the reason I am not loading up at 1.69 with total conviction. The 11 draws in 20 home games tell you Burnley are not a team that dominates at home; they grind, they draw, they occasionally lose.
But here is where the current form tips the balance. Burnley's last five games show 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses with 1.0 points per game, and that 4-0 win three days ago is the most recent and most telling result. Charlton's last five show 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses with 0.6 points per game, and they have failed to score in three of those five. Their xG for over 6 recent games with data is 0.9 per game, while Burnley's xG for over 5 recent games is 1.33 per game. Charlton's xG against is 1.35 per game, meaning they are being created against at a rate that a side scoring 0.4 goals per game cannot match.
The market prices Burnley's win at 1.69, which carries a bookmaker-implied probability of 59.17%. My own reading of the football — Burnley's recent 4-0 win, Charlton's inability to score, the poor away results, and the overall strength of the home side — puts my estimate above that figure. The home record keeps me from going higher, but the current form and the state of Charlton's attack tell me Burnley get the result.
Key Points:
- Burnley won 4-0 at Watford on 10 October and have scored in all five of their last matches
- Charlton have won 0 of their last 5, scoring just 2 goals and failing to score in 3
- Burnley's home record over 20 games is 1W 11D 8L; Charlton's away record over 20 games is 7W 7D 6L
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (10 to 13 years old), with Burnley winning 5 of 6
- Charlton's two most recent away games ended in 1-3 and 0-4 defeats
Verdict: I'm backing the Burnley home win at 1.69.