Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Sunday evening Serie A clash. Bologna, sitting pretty in 6th, welcome Sassuolo who are hovering in 10th. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but football's never that simple, is it?

Bologna have had a bit of a wobble lately, if we're honest. Their last three league games have seen them take just one point – a 1-1 draw with Lazio, sandwiched between defeats to Juventus (0-1) and a real shocker at home to Cremonese (1-3). That's not the form of a side pushing for Europe. They've been busy with the Super Cup and Europa League, mind you, beating Celta Vigo and Red Bull Salzburg in that competition. So the quality is there, but their league momentum has hit a speed bump.

Sassuolo, on the other hand, are the definition of a tricky customer. They don't half know how to spoil a party. Just ask AC Milan, who they held to a 2-2 draw away from home a couple of weeks back. They also went to Atalanta and walloped them 3-0 earlier in November. Their problem is consistency – they followed that Milan draw up with a 0-1 home loss to Torino. Away from home, they've actually been more reliable, winning 40% of their last five on the road and scoring at a decent clip of 1.40 goals per game.

Now, here's the juicy bit that makes me sit up. The head-to-head record between these two is bonkers. It's dead level – three wins each and three draws from nine meetings. But more importantly, both teams have scored in a whopping seven of those nine clashes. That's nearly 78% of the time! The last meeting finished 4-2 to Bologna. This fixture has a habit of producing goals and drama.

Looking at the stats, Bologna dominate the ball, averaging 53% possession and over 17 shots per game at home. Sassuolo are more modest, but they're efficient on the road, scoring 1.40 per away game. Defensively, neither side is watertight – Bologna concede 1.17 per game at home, Sassuolo let in 1.00 per game away.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Bologna as favourites at 1.75, which feels about right but doesn't scream value. The draw at 3.60 might tempt some, and Sassuolo's decent away record and history at this ground (they've won three of their last five visits!) means the 4.75 for an away win isn't completely daft.

But for me, the smart money, the value bet, is on both teams to score. The odds are an even 1.91 for 'Yes'. Given the history, the attacking tendencies of both sides, and the fact Bologna's defence has looked leaky lately, I fancy the net to bulge at both ends. Bologna will be desperate to get back to winning ways in front of their own fans, but Sassuolo have shown they can hurt anyone on their day.

Key Points:

Bologna are 6th but have lost two of their last three Serie A games.

Sassuolo are inconsistent but have picked up impressive away results against Milan and Atalanta.

Head-to-head record is perfectly balanced (3-3-3).

Crucially, both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

Bologna average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per home game.

Sassuolo average 1.40 goals scored per away game.

The Verdict: This has all the makings of an entertaining, end-to-end affair. While Bologna might edge it on points, Sassuolo have the tools to get on the scoresheet. At odds of 1.91, the value lies in backing Both Teams to Score - Yes.