Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Sassuolo at home to Parma – it's not exactly the San Siro on derby day, is it? But for us punters, these mid-table clashes are where the value often hides. Both sides are stuck in that no-man's land of Serie A, with Sassuolo sitting 9th on 22 points and Parma down in 15th with 17, though they've got a game in hand.

First off, form. Sassuolo have been a right mixed bag. In their last ten, they've nicked a brilliant 2-2 draw away at AC Milan and smashed Atalanta 3-0 on the road. But at their own gaff? Blimey, it's been grim. Just one win in their last five at home, losing three of them. They're scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 per game on their own patch. Not exactly fortress material.

Parma, on the other hand, have been a bit more lively on their travels lately. Two wins from their last four away, including a 2-1 win at Verona. They also held AC Milan to a 2-2 draw at home, which shows they've got a bit of fight in them. Their problem is consistency – they can follow a good result with a stinker, like losing 2-0 at home to Udinese.

When these two have met before, it's been pretty even. Parma have won four of the nine clashes, Sassuolo three. The last time out, Parma nicked it 1-0. At Sassuolo's ground, it's one win each and two draws from four games. There's no clear psychological edge here.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Sassuolo as favourites at 1.85, which feels a bit short given their dodgy home form. Parma at 4.50 is tempting for the brave, but I'm not that brave. The smart money, in my book, is on both teams to score. The odds are 1.95, which gives us a nice bit of value.

Why? Well, both sides have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games. Sassuolo's home matches have been goal-friendly – think 3-1 against Fiorentina, 2-2 with Pisa, 1-2 against Genoa. They can score, but they always look like they'll let one in. Parma, for their part, have scored in three of their last four away trips. They've also conceded in most of them. It's got 1-1 or 2-1 written all over it.

Key Points:

Sassuolo's home form is poor (1 win in last 5).

Parma have won 2 of their last 4 away games.

Head-to-head record is very even.

Both teams have scored in 60% of each side's recent matches.

• Goal expectancies point to a close, potentially open game.

To wrap it up, this is a proper mid-table scrap where neither side will want to lose. I can see it being a bit cagey at times, but with the attacking players both have – and the defensive mistakes they're prone to – I fancy both nets to ripple. The value at 1.95 for 'Yes' is too good to ignore.