Elche vs Athletic Club Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap between Elche and Athletic Club. Both sides are level on 13 points in the table, but don't let that fool you - there's a world of difference in how they're playing right now.

Elche have been absolutely solid at home this season. We're talking 83.33% win rate at their own gaff, barely conceding goals (just 0.33 per game at home), and making their place a proper fortress. They've only lost once in their last 10 games overall, and that was a narrow 3-1 defeat to Alaves. They've been grinding out results too - draws against Atletico Madrid and Sevilla show they can mix it with the big boys.

Athletic, on the other hand, have been a proper Jekyll and Hyde outfit. At home they're decent enough, but away from home? Blimey, it's not pretty. They've lost 75% of their away games this season, shipping two goals per game on average. Recent away form reads like a horror story: losses to Villarreal, Valencia, and a hammering 4-1 by Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. They're only scoring 0.75 goals per game on their travels too.

The head-to-head might show Athletic have the edge overall, but form is temporary and right now Elche are playing the better football. Athletic's away day blues combined with Elche's home strength makes this look like a home win waiting to happen.

Key Points:

• Elche have won 83.33% of their home games this season

• Athletic have lost 75% of their away games

• Elche concede just 0.33 goals per game at home

• Athletic ship 2.0 goals per game away from home

• Elche have only lost once in their last 10 matches

• Athletic have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games

The bookies have got this wrong in my opinion. Elche at 3.75 for the home win looks proper value given their home form and Athletic's travel sickness. Sometimes you've got to back the form over the history, and right now Elche are cooking with gas at home while Athletic are getting cooked on the road.