Dordrecht vs Almere City FC Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eerste Divisie scrap between Dordrecht and Almere City. On paper, it looks like a home banker, but football's never that simple, is it?

Dordrecht are sitting pretty in 9th with 19 points, while Almere are languishing down in 17th with just 11 points to show for their efforts this season. That's a proper gap in the table, and it shows in recent form too. The home side have been grinding out results - four draws in their last ten tells you they're hard to beat, even if they're not setting the world alight.

But here's the thing - Dordrecht's defense has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot lately. They're leaking 2.2 goals per game, and that 7-0 hammering by Willem II in the cup still stings. Still, they've shown some fight, picking up a decent 2-1 win at Helmond Sport and a 2-0 home victory over VVV Venlo.

Almere, bless 'em, are having a right old time of it on their travels. They've lost four of their last five away games, scoring just 1.2 goals per game on the road. They can bang 'em in at home - those 4-0 and 5-0 wins show they've got firepower - but away from home, they're about as threatening as a wet paper bag.

Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head record is shocking for Dordrecht. They've NEVER beaten Almere in nine attempts, with six losses and three draws. But form over history, I say. Almere are struggling badly this season, and that away form is dreadful.

Both teams tend to concede, and when these two meet, goals usually flow. Seven of their nine previous encounters have gone over 2.5 goals. But looking at the current state of both sides, I'm fancying Dordrecht to finally break that duck and get the win at home.

The odds of 2.40 for a home win look proper value to me. Almere's away form is that bad, and Dordrecht, despite their defensive woes, are the better team this season. Sometimes you've got to back the form over the history, and this feels like one of those times.

Key Points:

• Dordrecht sit 8 places above Almere in the league table

• Almere have lost 4 of their last 5 away games

• Dordrecht have never beaten Almere in 9 previous meetings

• Both teams concede regularly - Dordrecht 2.2 per game, Almere 1.5 per game

• 7 of 9 H2H matches have gone over 2.5 goals

• Almere score just 1.2 goals per game away from home

Summary: Despite the dreadful head-to-head record, current form and league position point towards a home win. Almere's away form is absolutely shocking, and Dordrecht should have enough to finally get one over their bogey team. The odds offer decent value for what looks like a home victory on the cards.